A nation is born: dispatch from the Southern Sudan

It’s not often that a new nation is founded as the result of a well-supported, peaceful and legal vote. Rarer still is having such an outcome after a protracted civil war.

As anyone who keeps track of international news knows, however, the people of Southern Sudan recently voted in a historic referendum on self-determination. The referendum was guaranteed by the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement that ended a 22-year civil war between north and south Sudan. A new and unusual nonprofit organization named Independent Diplomat has helped the Government of the Southern Sudan (GoSS) with its international diplomacy since 2009.

Independent Diplomat (ID) was founded on the belief that lasting peace and stability can only be achieved when those most affected by conflict can actively participate in the diplomatic discussion to resolve it. ID’s role has been to help GoSS persuade the international community to support the holding of the referendum, as well as to respect its outcome. The results of the vote overwhelmingly favor separation. Now that the results are announced, ID will continue to assist GoSS with its preparations for independence as the newest country in the world.

ID’s representative, Philip Winter, who is based in Juba, posted the following report from Southern Sudan.

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Three months ago, the politicians, diplomats, observers, analysts and aid workers who form opinion in the international community were worried about the referendum in Southern Sudan. The ballot papers had not been printed; the logistics of reaching all the polling stations in the remotest parts of Southern Sudan had not been figured out; there was a risk of legal challenges to the operation because the timetable had not been fully observed; there was loose talk of violence at the polling stations; and some wondered how a referendum could even be held in the absence of agreement on issues such as borders, debts and oil revenue.

These fears all proved groundless. The determination of those driving the process had been underestimated. An army of observers has now proclaimed the voting to be credible, fair and a true reflection of the will of the 3.9 million Southern Sudanese who registered to vote. Nearly 90 percent of those who registered cast their votes, and about 98 percent of them appear to have chosen secession over unity with the north. The excitement in the south has been palpable and moving to watch.

At the conclusion of the voting, Joseph Lagu, former vice-president of Sudan and leader of the Anyanya guerrillas who fought the first civil war, made a strong and historically significant speech. Of his “brothers in the north,” he said: “When they come to their senses, we will welcome them back.” To have a southern leader say that about the dominant part of the country, which had for two generations marginalized and fought with the other parts, was a revelation of how the dynamics of power in Sudan are quickly changing. The referendum is the first step in the remaking of the whole of Sudan, a project hitherto mired in violence and failure.

What’s next? As with the referendum, it is possible to recite a list of obstacles that could fatally damage the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement: failure to hold a smaller referendum on the future of Abyei; failure to reach agreement on security, the demarcation of the north-south border, the sharing of oil revenues, the allocation of debts and assets; citizenship; the future status of Southern Kordofan and Southern Blue Nile and so on.

But the first step after the referendum has already been taken, from a perhaps surprising quarter: the African Union. The African Union’s (AU) current president, Bingu wa Mutharika, the president of Malawi, has just been to Juba to announce that the AU will be the first to recognize the new state, Africa’s 54th. This very public welcoming of the result and the new nation by the AU will give a lead to all other nations to recognize it as well.

There will no doubt be objections, concerns and delays, but the die is cast and the Comprehensive Peace Agreement will come to an end on July 9 with a declaration of independence. It is safe to predict that, barring the totally unforeseen, the new nation will be recognized and will soon join the United Nations, the African Union and the East African Community.

Nonetheless, the difficulties of resolving the post-referendum issues are considerable and the risk of violence at the borders or in the oil fields are appreciable. The challenge for Independent Diplomat in this fast-changing political landscape is to help the GoSS leadership steer the new government through the labyrinth of post-referendum issues and the diplomacy of international recognition.

In the midst of all this serious analysis, of course, new citizens and onlookers are also preparing for a serious party on July 9!

This column was provided by Whitney Ellsworth, who is both the chairman of the board of Independent Diplomat and managing partner of the Lakeville Journal Company, LLC.