Region One Enrollment Seen Declining Next 10 Years

FALLS VILLAGE — It’s been no secret that enrollments in the Region One school district have declined significantly over the last 10 years — by 16.5 percent, to be exact. But recently released projections show the loss of students will accelerate well into the next decade.

This year, for the first time in recent memory, the student population of the six towns in the district dropped below 2,000 and, depending on whom you believe, it will continue to shrink between 10 and 20 percent by 2011.

The six towns are North Canaan, Falls Village, Kent, Sharon, Salisbury and Cornwall.

In the last year, Region One requested two enrollment projections, one from the state Department of Education and another from the New England School Development Council (NESDEC), a nonprofit organization that assists public schools with planning and development. The state predicts that by 2011 the district’s enrollment will decline by 10 percent, from 1,973 to 1,794. Estimates from NESDEC have the number of students declining even farther, to 1,646, for a total decline of 19 percent.Numbers Continue To Drop

"We were all aware that this was coming," said Patricia Chamberlain, the Region One superintendent who released the figures to the Board of Education at a meeting earlier this month. "Things have been trending this way for some time."

But last month, the state Department of Education also released projections for enrollment into 2016 that show a decline to 1,713, a loss of more than 34 percent since 1996.

Chamberlain said enrollment data tend to be cyclical, but she cited declining birth rates and the cost of housing as probable reasons for the drop in student enrollment since 1996 and the forecast of lower numbers through 2011 and beyond.

In 1991, for example, there were 179 births in the six Northwest Corner towns that comprise Region One. By 2005 (the last year for which figures are available), that number had dipped to 117.

Median sales prices for homes in Litchfield County routinely outstrip median incomes, making it very difficult for working families to afford to buy a house and put down roots. Chamberlain said newly hired Region One teachers often cannot afford to move into the area, and opt instead to live in Torrington or Winsted, where real estate prices are lower and the inventory of rental units is higher.

In addition, percentage swings in enrollment in Region One are more subject to short-term fluctuations, one expert says.

"You’re dealing with relatively few kids," said Peter Prowda, a predictive enrollments consultant for the state Department of Education. Prowda added that his projections show Region One enrollments bottoming out in 2015 and leveling off after that.

As for the disparity between the declines projected by the state and NESDEC, Ellen Kelly, a demographic specialist for NESDEC, said her organization relies less on formulas than demographics and cohort survival ratios, an enrollment-projection method which essentially compares the number of students in a particular grade to the number of students in the previous grade during the previous year.

"We also look at broad patterns, as well as the number of families with children moving out and into the region," Kelly said.Drain on Local Economy

The low enrollment projections are not encouraging to area employers. Michael Loftus has co-owned the Wake Robin Inn in Lakeville for six years and has been president of the Tri-State Chamber of Commerce since last year.

"Obviously it’s not good news," said Loftus. "We have already had trouble with our hiring from day one."

Loftus said fewer high school students will make it more difficult for him to fill entry-level positions. Last year, for example, he ran an advertisement for a laundry room attendant and got no responses.

"We’ve never been fully staffed during our peak season," Loftus said.

Fewer students will be particularly bad news for businesses such as Millerton’s Moviehouse, he said, which relies on young people to fill the bulk of its positions.

In an effort to enhance hiring prospects for the chamber’s members, the upcoming Tri-State Chamber of Commerce’s Trade Fair on March 18 will also include the job fair that had traditionally been held later in the spring.