Conventions next week, excitement under control

Connecticut’s political parties will meet in convention on Friday, May 16, and Saturday, May 17, for the purpose of nominating their candidates for governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, treasurer, comptroller and secretary of the state.The Democrats will meet at the Hartford Convention Center while the Republicans will gather in the more glittery confines of the Mohegan Sun Casino in the village of Uncasville. (The village is named for Uncas, the well known 17th century sachem, which is entirely irrelevant, but I thought you’d like to know.)We can predict that the Democrats will complete their convention business first, leaving their delegates free to enjoy the bright lights of Hartford on a Saturday night or go home, whichever sounds more enticing. The Republicans may have to labor into the night, given the time to be consumed hearing the relative merits of the six candidates competing for the gubernatorial nomination. This will not necessarily keep them from indulging in the sinful pleasures of the casino, as the casino, unlike the Connecticut Republican Party, is an institution that never sleeps.The outcome for governor is assured in Hartford and about as certain as anything can be at a casino. Dannel Malloy will be nominated for a second term, an outcome guaranteed even before Lee Whitnum, his only competitor prepared for her convention appearance by biting a U.S. marshal during a skirmish in a law library last week. This reduced her chances of getting enough votes for a primary from none to none.All signs point to Republican Tom Foley getting his second chance to run as well. I think State Sen. John McKinney, an experienced, moderate Republican, would have a better chance in the general election, but Republicans have a tradition of ignoring candidates who would have a better chance in the general election.The real competition at the Republican convention is for second place or maybe third place. If any of the six candidates reach those plateaus by getting 15 percent of the convention vote, he will be eligible to challenge Foley in a primary. Most likely to reach this height are McKinney and Danbury Mayor Mark Boughton. (I didn’t write “he or she” because the she among the six Republicans, Martha Dean, has as much chance as the marshal biting Lee Whitnum at the Democratic session. But Foley is expected to be the financial gorilla as well and may be able to drown any opponent with funds from “independent” PACs he controls as he takes full advantage of current law and Supreme Court rulings. Foley has conducted an unusually quiet campaign for the nomination, systematically gathering the delegates he’ll need by meeting with town committees. He hasn’t deigned to join the other five announced candidates in their televised debates, including the most recent one in Stamford before, as The Courant reporter so kindly put it, “a crowd of nearly 100.”This strategy of not saying anything that could be used against him or make voters laugh at him came after an early series of Foley gaffes. He had made some truly silly proposals and wild charges against Malloy and his administration before largely disappearing from public view last year. If the election were held today, I think Malloy would become the first incumbent governor to lose a second-term bid since Republican John Lodge 60 years ago. Malloy and the Democratic legislature have run the state badly, and it’s easier to fire the governor than the legislature. In addition, Connecticut seems to prefer divided government, with a governor and legislative majority of different parties keeping each other in check.But there are months of campaigning ahead and by October, voters will remember the $55 rebate as clearly as they remember the dumb things Foley did last spring. We will have many new outrages to consider as this election promises to be as nasty as the candidates can be.Both candidates share the disadvantage of being a bit hard to like. Foley’s past practice of dealing with grievances by driving his car at those who offended him will be revived, and questions will be raised about a candidate never elected to anything, a candidate who owes his past achievements to campaign contributions. Malloy’s job, as McKinney analyzed it, will be getting to November without the people of Connecticut knowing what’s really going on. If liberal, pro-union Democrat Jonathan Pelto runs as an independent, Malloy could be done for. If he doesn’t, it will be close with voters doing a lot of nose holding before choosing either of them. The alternative, which has growing appeal, according to a Gallup Poll out last week, is moving to another state.Simsbury resident Dick Ahles is a retired journalist. Email him at dahles@hotmail.com.