Thank you!
Your support is sustaining the future of local news in our communities.

Did we forget? Markets are supposed to pull back

It was a sea of red for stocks this week and last. Global markets broke a seven-month trading range and the rest is history. Consider this week’s decline a positive development. Here’s why.

Over the last seven months, the S&P 500 Index has traded in a narrow range between a gain of 3.5 percent and a loss of -3.2 percent. That hasn’t happened in almost 50 years. As markets go, this was a highly abnormal development. Something had to give, and I have been writing for months that at some point we could expect a larger, more “normal” sell-off in the market. Well, now we are returning to normalcy. It isn’t pleasant, because losses make us feel worse than gains make us feel good, but it is necessary if we want the market to move higher.

So why, you might ask, if I felt so sure that a decline was in the cards, didn’t I recommend that you get out of the market? I might have done so, if I believed that we were facing some calamitous event that would send us down an additional 20 percent or so. I don’t see that at all.

Instead, we are facing a long overdue decline that is more psychological than fundamentals. Since traders need an excuse to justify why they sold (when they should have been buying), the media trots out the most popular causes of decline. We have a short list that includes a tiny U.S. interest rate hike (that may or may not happen), falling oil prices (a boon to consumer spending), and a slowing global economy (something that we have known for months).

But before you panic, consider this: as of Friday, Aug. 21, year-to-date the Dow was down 4.4 percent. NASDAQ was still up 3 percent and the S&P 500 was off by a paltry 1.13 percent. Readers might recall that there were many days back in 2011-2012 when the averages were off that much in one trading session. So why do you feel so uncomfortable right now?

It could be because the last seven months of watching the market go up and down in such a narrow range has frayed your nerves, like watching a tight-rope act, waiting and holding your breath to see if the acrobat will fall to his death. Last week he fell off the tightrope. Your mind may be telling you not to worry, while your emotions are making you feel that this sell-off is the beginning of the end. It is not.

As in past corrections, the markets have dropped swiftly. It is the escalator-up, elevator-down syndrome so prevalent in declining markets. The S&P 500 is presently a bit above the 2,000 level. We have a long, long way to go (1,921) before the decline in the S&P 500 would qualify as a “correction. We would have to drop to 1,708 before I would say we were in a bear market. 

In the meantime, expect the headlines to be even more negative than usual. Ignore it. I’m expecting the S&P index will find support around 1,980, which is less than 30 points lower from here. That could happen as early as mid-week. Do you think you can live with that? 

If you have new money to invest in this market, now would be the time to start buying. I know I am. If, on the other hand, you still had money in government bonds, it would be a great opportunity to sell them and move the proceeds into equity. Relax, stay invested and remember that these kind of textbook declines are the cost of doing business in the stock market, nothing more, nothing less. 

Bill Schmick is registered as an investment adviser representative with Berkshire Money Management. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own. None of the information presented here should be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. Direct inquires to Bill at 1-888-232-6072 (toll free) or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com.

Latest News

Early morning Kent crash sends car into ditch, disrupts traffic on Rt. 341

A blue SUV remains in a ditch after an early-morning crash along Segar Mountain Road in Kent May 27.

Ruth Epstein

KENT – A driver escaped with minor injuries after an SUV crashed into a utility pole and water line before rolling into a ditch along Segar Mountain Road early Wednesday morning, May 27, disrupting traffic for much of the day and affecting water service to a nearby residence.

The single-vehicle crash occurred around 4:30 a.m. near 36 Segar Mountain Road, just under half a mile east of the intersection with South Kent Road. State police said the blue SUV struck the pole, went over a guardrail and came to stop in a roadside ditch.

Keep ReadingShow less

Pauline King Garfield

Pauline King Garfield

EAST CANAAN — Pauline K. (King) Garfield, 94 of 77 South Canaan Rd. formerly of East Canaan, died Sunday May 24, 2026, at Geer Village.She was the wife of the late Duane Garfield who passed August 14, 2017. Pauline was born April 3, 1932 in North Canaan, CT in the former Geer Hospital. She was the daughter of the late Charles and Rose (Van Vlack) King.

Pauline spent her career at Becton Dickinson in Canaan, after being a stay-at-home mother for many years.She was employed at Becton Dickinson for 23 years. She enjoyed bus trips with her late husband Duane to the Casinos, spending time with her family watching the grandchildren grow up. Recently she made a comment to care givers that was “wait until I see that husband of mine for leaving me here, I am going to read him the riot act.” Over the years she enjoyed many crafts, but her favorite was crocheting gifts for everyone.

Keep ReadingShow less
A blessing for pets — and a lifeline for their health
Lazarus, a Eurasian eagle owl, poses with Dr. Laura, his longtime handler. The rescue raptor — known as the event’s “wow factor” for his striking presence and six-foot wingspan — will appear as the Raptor Ambassador at Rhinebeck’s Blessing of the Animals.
provided

For many pet owners, animals are family. On Saturday, May 30, that bond will be celebrated in a uniquely practical and heartfelt way when the Blessing of the Animals returns to Third Lutheran Evangelical Church in Rhinebeck alongside a free rabies vaccination clinic hosted by Hudson Valley Animal Rescue & Sanctuary.

The event, scheduled from noon to 4 p.m., is free for Dutchess County residents and open to dogs, cats and domestic ferrets three months and older. While the clinic itself provides an important public health service, organizers say the day has become about much more than vaccinations.

Keep ReadingShow less
google preferred source

Want more of our stories on Google? Click here to make us a Preferred Source.

Local filmmaker Yonah Sadeh takes his lens to China

Filmmaker Yonah Sadeh on a shoot last year in New York City.

Matt Kashtan
When I was around 12, a family friend showed me how to use my family’s computer...from that point on, it was pretty much all movies. — Yonah Sadeh

Filmmaker Yonah Sadeh of Falls Village left May 8 for China, where he will shoot a short documentary.

“I got into a documentary film intensive program where we have two weeks to shoot, edit and screen a 10-minute documentary about a topic of our choosing,” he said.“I’ll be in Changsha, Hunan, making a film about a fifth-generation shadow puppet master.”

Keep ReadingShow less
Silvano Monasterios wows packed Cornwall Town Hall audience

Silvano Monasterios thrilled a sold out audience in Cornwall.

Natalia Zukerman

Grammy-nominated pianist, composer and producer Silvano Monasterios performed works from his upcoming “Solo in Paris,” his seventh album, on Sunday, May 23 at Cornwall Town Hall to a packed audience. Presented by Music Mountain in partnership with the Cornwall Town Hall and Cornwall Library, the concert showcased Monasterios’ signature fusion of sophisticated jazz harmonies and vibrant Latin rhythms. Throughout the performance, he moved seamlessly between intricate compositions and spontaneous improvisation. The concert built excitement for Music Mountain’s upcoming summer jazz series, which will bring an array of acclaimed performers to the historic venue. For more information, visit musicmountain.org

Author Courtney Maum to discuss new novel at Norfolk Library

Norfolk Library celebrates the release of Courtney Maum’s latest novel, “Alan Opts Out,” with a book launch party Tuesday, June 2, at 5:30 p.m. The author will speak about her book in conversation with WAMC radio producer Sarah LaDuke.

A graduate of Brown University with a degree in comparative literature, Maum is an acclaimed author of five books, including the romantic comedy “Touch,” a New York Times Editors’ Choice and NPR Best Book of the Year; “Costalegre;” and “I’m Having So Much Fun Without You.” Her memoir, “The Year of the Horses,” was chosen by the TODAY show as top pick for Mental Health Awareness Month. Vanity Fair listed her author’s guidebook “Before and After the Book Deal,” as a best resource for writers, and she has an eponymous Substack newsletter.

Keep ReadingShow less
google preferred source

Want more of our stories on Google? Click here to make us a Preferred Source.

google preferred source

Want more of our stories on Google? Click here to make us a Preferred Source.