Diplomat says Putin will continue belligerence unless stopped

FALLS VILLAGE — Veteran diplomat and author Marie Yovanovitch said Russian strongman Vladimir Putin is a “bully” who will continue to wreak havoc in Europe if not stopped.

Yovanovitch, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine and the author of the recent “Lessons from the Edge” spoke at Housatonic Valley Regional High School on June 1, as part of the Salisbury Forum series of talks. Laurance Rand was the moderator.

Yovanovitch said that in 1991, when the Soviet Union dissolved and the former republics (including Ukraine) became independent nations, there was a considerable optimism in the West about the future.

As Russia and Ukraine developed a new relationship, “it didn’t look like it was going to be the hostile relationship we see now.”

When President Boris Yeltsin chose Putin to be prime minister in 1999 (Yovanovitch used the word “anointed”), the latter moved quickly to amass and consolidate power, and has continued to the present day.

Putin started the second war between Russia and Chechnya in 1999, invaded Georgia in 2008, seized Crimea in 2014, and then, a month later, began operations in the Donbas region of Ukraine.

Russia’s belligerent actions drew little or no reaction from the West at first. The invasion of Georgia sparked international criticism, but essentially occurred at “no cost to Russia,” Yovanovitch said.

It wasn’t until the 2014 actions that the international reaction was forceful. Russia was kicked out of the G8 group of industrialized nations and sanctions were imposed.

“I don’t think Russia was expecting any of this, and it is my belief…that Russia stopped where it stopped in Donbas because of these sanctions.”

Yovanovitch said Putin spent the next eight years “fomenting a hot war” in eastern Ukraine, hoping to destabilize the central government.

And then, in the fall of 2021, the Russians started a military buildup on Ukraine’s borders and invaded on Feb. 24, 2022.

Yovanovitch said there is popular support for Putin and the war in Russia, in part because Russian propaganda is very effective.

Before the invasion, the Russian line was that they and the Ukranians were fellow Slavs. Now Russians are told that their troops are liberating Ukraine from Nazis.

“It’s a complete fantasy,” said Yovanovitch. “But many people in Russia believe it. It’s all they know, it’s all they’ve heard.”

And the extreme brutality of the Russian forces have created determined opposition in Ukraine, one that is not inclined to negotiate or concede on anything.

“It’s hard to see the path to peace.”

Yovanovitch said the Russian invasion of Ukraine amounts to open defiance of the “rules-based international order,” and has caused European nations to reverse the last 70 years of post-World War II policy.

She noted that while Russia may have wanted a less powerful North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), it is getting more NATO instead, with Finland and Sweden applying for membership.

She praised the Biden administration for walking a thin line between supporting Ukraine and getting caught up in a larger war.

And she warned that Putin and Russia will not abandon their expansionist goals unless stopped.

“If they are successful —and I don’t think they will be  — we can expect them to continue pushing, because that’s the pattern.”

To see the entire program go to www.salisburyforum.org.