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Extreme weather forecast

MILLBROOK — On an idyllic summer evening at the Cary Institute on Friday, Aug. 20, Heidi Cullen forecast that weather will change as the result of global warming. The lecture was based on her just published book, “The Weather of the Future.â€

This was not a debate about whether sea levels and world temperatures will rise, but a scientifically-based discussion on what to expect, weather-wise. Overall, the talk focused on how important it is to look at climate change in the context of extreme weather. The latest scientific research makes it clear that climate change means more heat waves, floods and droughts.

An entire chapter of Cullen’s book focuses on the vulnerability of New York City to rising temperatures that will mean blackouts, sewer line backups and flooding. Massive investment in the infrastructure of roads, bridges, power plants, subways and airports will be required to preserve the city.

“If people are going to understand what is really at stake, scientists have to find new ways to communicate the science, using data images, and computer scenarios,†Cullen states in her book. “I can honestly say that real estate is what comes up most often when I talk to people about global warming.â€

Asked by The Millerton News what the warming trend means for winter weather in the Northeast, Cullen replied, “Overall winters are expected to be warmer, but storms are expected to be more intense [with more precipitation falling over a shorter period of time]. But that doesn’t necessarily mean fewer snowstorms.â€

If you missed Cullen’s lecture at the Cary Institute, you can watch a taped video on ecostudies.org by clicking on the “For Visitors†tab, “Upcoming Events,†and then “Videos of Past Lectures.†For the concerned public interested in up-to-the-minute weather news and analysis, the website climatechange.org is a resource for the non-scientist trying to understand these issues.

Cullen is a climatology expert who is the CEO of climatecentral.org, a research scientist and a regular climate reporter on the PBS News Hour and the Weather Channel. She studied engineering and operations research at Columbia University and received a doctorate in climatology and ocean-atmosphere dynamics at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia as well.

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