Making sense of the census

It took more than a year, 635,000 workers and about $14 billion dollars. The 2010 decennial census is complete, and its primary purpose, determining government representation — its prime directive for more than two centuries — has been accomplished. In the coming weeks, states will receive detailed demographic information that will be used for all sorts of purposes, including determining where programs and subsidies are needed, and even how many members sit on local boards and commissions.

The U.S. Census Bureau, part of the Department of Commerce, is calling the operation very successful. The approach to counting everyone in the U.S. on April 1 of one year each decade is truly a daunting task. But the self-analysis by the bureau may very well be more than spin. The multi-operational process had its glitches and some of the expected governmental plodding. But in the end, it seemed the combination of technology and human contact, with emphasis on the latter, was a winning combination.

The overall results were released in late December, showing a 9.7 percent population increase since 2000. That puts us at 308,745,538. Not necessarily all Americans. The census doesn’t ask about citizenship. As well, some of that number live abroad, most serving in the military.

The census in this country has always been aimed at being non-discriminatory, not limiting the count to landowners and men, even when they were the only ones allowed to vote. Even slaves were counted — as three fifths of a person.

No change in Congress

Connecticut was among the 49 states marking a population increase between 2000 and 2010. But at less than 5 percent, there will be no Congressional seats gained or lost.

Full-time Connecticut residents still add up to less than 4 million, even when adding in the weekenders counted elsewhere. While it doesn’t seem to apply in this area, the population density increased a bit, to more than 200 people per square mile, on average.

What it all means for the state is very little.

Connecticut ranked slightly above the national average of 72 percent of households returning mailed surveys. That higher-than-anticipated return and other savings brought the census in well under budget.

That was a surprise to those working the NRFU (non-response follow up) operation and a final “mop up� that stretched into August. There were plenty of stories near and far of workers padding hours. There was even the extra expense of a need to re-do botched training for the final operation.

Taxpayer dollars

As it turned out, budget woes were avoided by a total $800 million underestimate of the cost of NRFU and counting those living in Alaska and on tribal lands. Another $800 million in a contingency fund was not tapped. Even more forgiving was that there was really no absolute budget number. The bureau estimated $11.3 billion going in.

It may not be surprising to hear that the first census cost $44,377, or just over a penny a person. A fairer comparison would be to look at recent costs.

In 2000, the $4.5 billion cost amounted to $15.99 per person.

Even accounting for inflation, costs have more than tripled. Analysts blame in part mismanagement in purchasing and the cost of some 28 million surveys that were thrown out after the U.S. Postal Service refused to place them in post office boxes.

Mostly, it was due to dashed dreams of a high-tech census, which resulted in a lot of extra workers making an average $20 per hour. More than one analyst remarked on a silver lining of economic stimulus.

This was the 23rd census. Yes, that means it’s been done continuously since 1790 on a decennial basis. Back then, when the entire United States population was less than the current population of Los Angeles, each Congressman had about 34,000 constituents. Today, the House has quadrupled in size to 435 seats, with districts averaging more than 700,000.

Anyone home?

Workers were instructed to make several attempts to speak face-to-face with residents before resorting to phone calls and proxies; neighbors, landlords and others who were willing to give their name and supply information. The approach was aimed at both accuracy and a chance to look for residences that were missed.

While city census workers were looking in cardboard boxes, enumerators here were sorting out accessory apartments, guest houses, garage studios and haylofts. Basically, if it had an exterior door, it was suspect.

That’s not to imply people needed to be “hunted� down. But it seemed for each person who was cooperative — some thanked census workers for doing an important job — there was another who either didn’t care, wasn’t aware or still had the mailed survey in the pile on the kitchen counter. Census workers were instructed to accept those forms if offered, but to fill out the NRFU survey as well.

There were those who believed they were upholding their Constitutional right by giving only the number of people living in a household. They were referring to the original law (Article 1, Section 2) that the purpose of the census is to redistribute seats in the House of Representatives. But many laws have been passed since that require more data to be collected to help administer that law, and prevent skewed counts.

Title 13 of the U.S. Code includes both the confidentiality oath census workers take, and the requirement of residents to answer all questions in the census survey.

The result was that determined enumerators went to those homes to collect the withheld information, making repeated visits or phone calls as needed.

When first-hand information was given, it was usually grudgingly. Failing that, a neighbor or other knowledgeable persons would be tapped for as much information as possible. Whatever questions went unanswered would be given a guess by the bureau, or imputation as they call it, based on local demographics.

Surprises at the front door

Enumerator training manuals offered tips for safe door-to-door canvassing, including wearing comfortable shoes “in case you have to run.� Much of it did not apply here. But that’s not to say there was not a degree of mistrust, annoyance, non-cooperation, threats and verbal abuse. One female worker here reported a man came to his door totally naked.

Most cooperative, it seemed to enumerators, were the dogs. While carrying dog treats was recommended, canines happily greeted census strangers, for the most part, to the disappointment of a small percentage of owners.

UHE and NRFU

A bigger threat was to vehicles, as workers trolled the back roads and long, winding rutted driveways that often lead to impressive homes that could require weeks of weekend visits to try to catch someone in residence. Some driveways, or more accurately, access roads, were blocked by locked gates, and workers were told to make a judgment call as to whether or not to proceed on foot.

There were the lakeside summer cottages, where even the lack of a toilet did not remove it as a residence in the eyes of the census bureau.

The most oft-heard answer at weekend homes seemed to be, “I filled out a survey in New York.� Their annoyance or confusion was followed by relief as enumerators explained that the count was focused on addresses, not people. Follow up surveys did not include names, and all that was usually needed at that point was to mark the form as a UHE (usual home elsewhere).

As NRFU wound down, officials at the New Britain regional office threatened to send in workers willing to get the job done, citing a remarkably high percentage of vacancies.

Despite explanations from crew leaders, they had trouble fathoming that the vacancies were mostly second homes — amounting to about half of the households in many Northwest Corner towns.

Enumerators, most who live locally and were not surprised by that outcome, visited those homes on the weekends, tracked owners down by phone at their primary residences or spoke with town assessors to get accurate information.

Still, regional supervisors concluded workers here were giving up too easily. Reports from a few out-of-area workers sent here convinced them otherwise.

Word from Census Bureau Director Robert Groves is that the next eight planning years will be spent working on using as much technology as possible in 2020. Most of the planning will driven by an effort to avoid making technologically obsolete decisions. There is even an eye toward the potential loss of the postal service. No firm plan is expected to be announced before 2017.

Lakeville Journal reporter Karen Bartomioli participated as a census worker in 2010.