Northwest CT faces ‘considerable change’, report says

Northwest Connecticut is headed for “considerable change,” according to a new report by the Northwest CT Community Foundation that examines the trends in the region’s demographic, economic and education makeup.

In a report, an update from a ‘2017 Community Crossroads’ study, the foundation paints a picture of a region that faces a declining and aging population, dropping school enrollment and skyrocketing home prices that continue to outstrip moderate family incomes.

The 2025 outlook confirms that trends identified seven years ago have borne out — and are even more pronounced. NCCF, a charity located in Torrington that supports nonprofits and provides grant assistance and student scholarship opportunities, said that the goal of the community update is to help municipal planners and policymakers.

The report found that the region’s population will continue to drop. Besides the decline, overall the 20 towns in the Northwest Corner will be populated by more seniors and fewer pre-school and school-aged children, which translates into a continued decline in public school enrollment.

Student enrollment drop

The report found a gradual and consistent decline in student population over the period, noting a 12% drop — a deficit of 1,900 over a ten-year period.

In Region One, enrollment at Housatonic Valley Regional High School fell from 446 in 2015-’16 to 314 in 2023-’24, a decline of 132 or 30%.

The number of pre-school and school age children in the 20-town region trended downward, and the decrease exceeded forecasts. Those between birth and age 4 decreased by 9% — 397 fewer children — in a seven-year period.

Some Northwest Corner towns showed enrollment increases.

—Falls Village/Canaan reported an increase of four students.

—Cornwall counted five more students.

—Salisbury reported an increase of 29 students.

—Norfolk’s student enrollment dropped dramatically from 116 to 56, a 52% drop.

—Sharon also showed a deficit of 54 students over the period, a 34% decline.

—North Canaan had 16 fewer students, down 6%.

—Kent enrollment declined by 46, a 19% drop.

The trends show that birth rates will remain low and death rates will remain high.

Racial and ethnic change

The NCCF report also reported that the region is becoming more racially and ethnically diverse. Asian, Black and Hispanic populations rose substantially, while the White population fell by 12% in the past seven years.

There was an unexpected increase in the number of young adults, including in the 25- to 39-year old group. Noting a “small but steady” increase in young adults of 13%, NCCF said that it was an unexpected and positive finding, but said continuation of the trend will depend on housing, job opportunities and work-at-home options.

On the economic front, the region also faces the prospect of fewer and fewer available and experienced workers, some of whom will be turning their backs on Northwest Connecticut for jobs outside the region.

Experienced worker issue

Experienced workers are expected to continue to decline, and more education and training will be required to obtain employment.

Four out of five workers were employed in a town outside their home town, and three quarters of workers commuted outside the 20-town region for employment.

“This trend brings into question the overall vitality of NWCT’s business environment and its capability for meeting the employment needs of its resident workforce,” NCCF wrote in the report.

The increase in the young adult group was led by a 41% increase in Torrington. The pandemic was cited as a possible cause due to remote and hybrid learning and working at home. Yet the NCCF study noted that the ongoing decrease in K-12 enrollments is a warning sign for the region’s future young adult cohort.

The number of experienced workers in the 40 to 54 year age group showed a sharp decline since 2015, and the purchasing power in this group also declined. Vocational/technical high school education or post-secondary education are viewed as necessary for workers to achieve long-term economic security.

A senior ‘explosion’

The senior “explosion” will challenge the capacity of social and healthcare services, NCCF says.

The aging of the region’s population will result in a 10% growth in the 65-plus population, meaning that the older adult population will be 25% greater in number than it was in 2015. The total 65-plus population is expected to reach 24,937 this year.

Litchfield County continued to experience migration out of the county, though it was lower than it was seven years ago. The most popular states for relocation were New York, Florida, Massachusetts, South Carolina, California and Arizona. In-migration from other Connecticut counties more than doubled since 2015, with New Haven and Fairfield Counties leading. NCCF noted that the impact of the pandemic is unknown.

Home values from 2013 to 2023 rose by 65% for a median increase of $171,816, while household incomes rose 22%.

Rising home prices

One quarter of the region’s housing units with a mortgage were owned by households earning $75,000 or less. Two thirds of those households were paying more than 30% of their income on housing, and the same was found for renters.

From 2017 to 2023, median home values rose accordingly:

—Falls Village/Canaan: $186, 467 to $324,432

—Cornwall: $383,592 to $607,987

—Salisbury: $473,369 to $807,848

—Sharon: $364,709 to $598,667

—North Canaan: $178,508 to $309,831

—Kent: $344,540 to $567,457

—Norfolk: $279,233 to $462,507

“In sum, the high cost of both homeownership and rental housing does not serve the region well for either persuading those aged 25 to 39 to remain in NWCT or for attracting that demographic to relocate here,” NCCF said.

The report can be found at www.yournccf.org