Real answers to Middle East questions at Forum talk

SALISBURY — President Donald J. Trump made Saudi Arabia his first international destination. He was feted as a visiting monarch, complete with an Arabian sword dance; his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, now the Trump strategist for a Middle East peace plan, became an instant friend of the crown prince. The U.S. announced its total support for the Saudi regime in its struggle against Iran for hegemony in the region.

So Martin Smith, the award-winning documentary film maker for PBS’ “Frontline,” has chosen “Proxy Wars in the Middle East: Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the U.S.” for his subject when he speaks at a Salisbury Forum on Friday, Dec. 1, at Salisbury School.

Soon after 9/11, Smith began a methodical examination of the roots of the disaster — 15 of the 19 hijackers were Saudi citizens — which continues today with films on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and the rise of ISIS in Syria. Smith was in Syria last week looking at the dangerous confrontation between forces backed by Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Russia and — now to a lesser extent — the U.S.

He took time while there to answer four questions posed by this reporter:

How does the recent upheaval in Saudi Arabia and the actions of the warlike crown prince change the Middle East Equation?

Mohammed bin Salman, the crown prince and effective ruler of the kingdom, is escalating tensions domestically and regionally. How he expects to resolve discord over his rule at home I think we can’t say. At the same time he is firing a warning shot across Iran’s bow in Lebanon by declaring that Saudi Arabia will no longer support Saad Hariri as prime minister there. To Salman, Hariri was merely providing cover for a Lebanese government under the control of Iran. It is a bold if not reckless strategy.

Is the Sunni-Shiite schism as powerful as ever in influencing Saudi Arabia and Iran?

The rivalry between the two is about power, not sectarianism. Sunnis and Shia have lived more or less in peace for centuries. But since the Iranian revolution in 1979 and the disruption caused by the American invasion of Iraq in 2003, religion has been used by the two regional powers to send men to kill and die under sectarian banners and slogans. Both countries are weaponizing religion in their drive for power and influence.

Is it imaginable that a Kushner-crafted Middle East peace plan could have traction?

I can’t imagine how. No.

Will the imbalance between the royal family and the rest of the Saudi population ever really change? Will disaffected young people ever make a difference?

The Saudis have been able to suppress discontent for many years. Mohammed bin Salman is attempting to re-engineer Saudi society from the top down. His changes may appease some for a while, but the more he allows individual freedoms — social and economic — the more he will be vulnerable to pressures from below for more changes. He is a young man. How he understands the lessons of history is unknown.

Martin Smith will speak at a Salisbury Forum on Friday, Dec. 1, at Salisbury School, 7:30 p.m. As with all forum events, admission is free and open to all.