Republicans really need somebody now

In a monologue two weeks ago, Jay Leno said, “Donald Trump says he’s President Obama’s worst nightmare. No, having to make a decision is President Obama’s worst nightmare.”The joke sounds ridiculous now but it worked then. A firefight in a Pakistani terrorist hideout changed what was a widely held view of a president into a bad joke overnight.But a triumph, even one as great as getting Osama bin Laden, can quickly fade in the rush of events in an election year. Ask the first President Bush. Bin Laden was killed on May 2, 2011, almost 20 years to the day in April 1991 the United States defeated Iraq in the first Gulf war. As a result, the approval rating of George H.W. Bush, already quite good at 61 percent, went up almost 30 points. The popular war, fought and won in 100 days with few American casualties, was the second foreign policy success on Bush’s watch, following the far more significant collapse of the Soviet Union in the first year of his presidency. Together, they made Bush’s re-election look like a sure thing in 1991.But elections aren’t held in uneven years like 1991 and 2011, and by the fall of 1992, the voters didn’t have foreign affairs on their minds. The only issue that mattered turned out to be “the economy, stupid,” as the opposition memorably put it.By then, the nation was in a recession serious enough to cause President Bush to break his pithy but premature pledge of “read my lips, no new taxes” and agree to a modest tax increase. In addition, there was a deficit, nothing like today’s, but it brought Ross Perot into the race as a third-party candidate, and he proved to be the spoiler for President Bush. Like today’s Republicans, the Democrats didn’t seem to have much to offer by way of candidates 20 years ago. Bush’s incumbency advantages, foreign policy successes and high approval ratings discouraged prominent Democrats like Mario Cuomo from running and the party was left with the unpredictable governor of California, Jerry Brown, the relatively unknown governor of Arkansas, Bill Clinton, and Senators Bob Kerrey, Tom Harkin and Paul Tsongas. Not a formidable lineup, but star studded next to the likes of Trump, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, Rick Santorum and the other 2011challengers.And that may be the deciding factor if Obama is to win a second term. You can’t beat somebody with nobody, and rarely has a party attracted as many nobodies as today’s Republicans. After the leadership he exhibited in getting bin Laden, Obama’s opponents will find it hard to paint him as an indecisive president, inexperienced in foreign affairs and soft on terrorism. But if unemployment remains in the 9 percent range, gasoline is around $4 a gallon, the deficit isn’t under control and the public is still concerned about the confusing health-care law, all that won’t matter very much.Early post-bin Laden polls indicate Obama has enjoyed only a modest bump in his approval ratings to the upper-50s, not even as high as George H.W. Bush’s 61 percent before the victory in Iraq boosted him to 89 percent.Polls find voters are still unhappy with Obama’s handling of the economy, which has kept the president’s approval rating hovering between 45 and 51 percent over the past 18 months, according to Nate Silver, the public opinion wizard for nytimes.com. Silver believes “a president with a 51 percent approval rating would almost certainly win another term,” but a president with a 45 percent approval would probably lose unless “an unpopular candidate like Sarah Palin was to be nominated.”The Republicans have a bountiful supply of unpopular candidates like Sarah Palin, and maybe even Palin herself. What they sorely need is a candidate the public — moderates, independents and even unhappy Democrats — can perceive to be at least the equal to Obama or better. At the moment, there’s no one even close. Simsbury resident Dick Ahles is a retired journalist. Email him at dahles@hotmail.com.