Unsettling insights into the future of the U.S.-China political relationship

SALISBURY — If the United States and the People’s Republic of China go to war, it will most likely be over Taiwan, according to China expert Bonnie S. Glaser, who spoke at a Zoom edition of the Salisbury Forum on Friday, March 19.

Glaser opened with some background, from the initial opening with China in 1972 by President Richard Nixon, through normalization of relations in 1979 by President Jimmy Carter, and China’s economic transformation in the following four decades.

She said the 1989 crackdown on dissidents at Tiananmen Square came as a disappointment to Americans and started the beginning of “a more realistic approach” to China.

As China’s economy expanded, the Communist Party tightened its grip on power, a trend that has accelerated under current leader Xi Jinping.

Glaser noted that the internet is tightly controlled in China. She referred to the detention of two Canadian citizens for some 18 months after Canada detained a prominent Chinese technology executive and allowed her to be extradited to the U.S. She said some one million Uyghurs have been detained.

100th anniversary of revolution

Xi set out an ambitious set of goals to the Chinese Communist Party’s 19th Congress in 2017.

Glaser said the goals for 2035 are: realize socialist modernization; become a global leader in innovation; boost Chinese soft power; complete modernization of the military.

For 2049, the 100th anniversary of the Communist takeover, the goals are: achieve national rejuvenation; have significant international influence; establish a “first-tier” military.

Glaser then polled the audience, asking whether the U.S. should view China as an enemy, a rival, a competitor or a partner. 

“Enemy” got 6%, “rival” 43%, “competitor” 36% and “partner” 15%.

Glaser identified the problem areas in the U.S.-China relationship. She said Xi is widely expected to remain in power for the foreseeable future, so significant political changes are unlikely.

Threat of the theft of technology 

China is determined to “dominate” high technology, with the goal of supplanting the U.S. and other Western nations.

“This is seen as a huge threat to the U.S.”

The Chinese want to be as self-sufficient as possible, especially in high tech. To that end they are busy buying up foreign companies, engaging in the theft of intellectual property, encouraging members of the Chinese diaspora to return, and linking the civil tech industry to the military.

Glaser quoted John C. Demers, a national security official in the Trump administration, on the Chinese approach: “Rob the American company of its intellectual property, replicate the technology, and replace the American company in the Chinese market and, one day, the global market.”

“The U.S. has woken up to this problem,” Glaser said. “But we’re still debating” how best to respond.

Should China be cut off from technology that has national security uses only? Should the U.S. take more drastic measures? Glaser reminded the audience that U.S.-China trade amounts to some $600 billion yearly, adding that a complete embargo was very unlikely.

Territorial expansion ambitions

China has been using its military in an aggressive manner, building artificial islands in the South China Sea (and causing considerable environmental damage in the process). 

The Chinese harass neighboring small countries over the latters’ territorial waters, and generally ignore international law regarding the sea.

Glaser said that, from the Chinese point of view, they look eastward and see two chains of islands running roughly north to south, with significant U.S. military presence in each.

“The military dynamic is very zero sum,” Glaser said.

Taiwan as a crux of future disputes

Which brings up Taiwan (officially known as the Republic of China).

Glaser said that Taiwan’s international status is murky, and U.S. policy has deliberately left it that way.

The U.S. and Taiwan do not have formal diplomatic relations, and Taiwan was removed from the United Nations in 1971, when that body recognized the People’s Republic of China.

Glaser said she was a young college student in Taiwan in 1979, arriving a few weeks after the U.S. broke off diplomatic relations and instead recognized the People’s Republic.

“It was quite a situation,” Glaser said. “People were surprised and scared.”

Taiwan had an authoritarian government until the late 1980s, when it made a successful transition to parliamentary democracy.

Despite having no formal relations, many countries, including the U.S., maintain less formal relations.

And the U.S. has an agreement to sell defensive weapons to Taiwan.

“This is the issue we go to war over,” said Glaser. “Not little islands in the South China Sea.”

She took another poll, this time asking, “If China attacked Taiwan, should the U.S. use its military to defend Taiwan?”

Poll result: Yes 67%, no 33%.

Glaser reiterated that the U.S. does not have a treaty obligation to defend Taiwan — just an “obligation” to sell military equipment.”

She called this “strategic ambiguity.”

“We don’t say in advance what we’re going to do.”

The policy attempts to thread the needle between provoking an attack on Taiwan by China, and promoting Taiwan’s independence.

Glaser wrapped things up on a hopeful note. She observed that the U.S. and China have a history of cooperating on issues such as climate change and North Korea.

“So we do have a history of working together. It’s possible and doable.”