Thank you!
Your support is sustaining the future of local news in our communities.

Trump’s rhetoric: Mostly a wish list

As we step into the new year, stocks have soared in celebration as Donald Trump took the reins of office. This transition of power has brought a wave of optimism, which can continue, although a mild bout of profit-taking in the near term should be expected.

A flurry of Day One executive orders kept the markets busy parsing the meaning of this one or that one. However, the enthusiasm had more to do with what President Trump did not do than what he did. The greatest fear of investors was that the president would levy 10% tariffs across the board on all nations. Some nations, such as China, Mexico, and Canada, were expected to get hit by even higher duties on Day One. It didn’t happen.

Most economists are convinced that tariffs would not only hurt economic growth both here and abroad but also fuel further growth of inflation. That does not mean that tariffs are off the board. The president indicated that tariffs on our North American trading partners could be announced by early February. China, however, not so much.

The currency markets immediately began to sell the dollar, which has been a winning trade (up 10%) over the last several months. Foreign nations have been willing to see (or orchestrate) their currencies decline to reduce the impact of the expected 10% tariffs Trump promised during his campaign. See how that works?

As a result, the yield on U.S. bonds fell in tandem with the dollar. Those developments partially explain the rally in equities. Of course, this trade can reverse in the blink of an eye. The president has not said tariffs are off the table. I believe it is just a question of when some countries will be targeted for tariffs. Trump has made it clear that tariffs are a negotiating tactic. There is no reason to think he would drop this tool in the days and weeks ahead. However, do not tariff trade. That is a losing proposition for those who tried that during Trump’s first term.

This week, the Federal Reserve meets on Jan. 29. Expectations are that the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) will stand pat, keep interest rates where they are, and take a wait-and-see attitude toward the future. Bond investors are not expecting any more than one or maybe two interest rate cuts (if any) during 2025. Many of the president’s policies could boost economic growth and possibly inflation and the Fed will want to see how the government’s economic policies unfold.

Investors are focusing almost solely on Donald Trump. In a Davos speech on Thursday, Jan. 23, for example, the president said that interest rates around the world should be “dropped immediately” and that the price of oil should also be lowered. Taking those statements as gospel, I think is a mistake.

A U.S. president may be able to jawbone an easier interest rate policy from a Fed chairman. It has been done before, for example, under Richard Nixon’s administration, but he has zero influence on other central bankers worldwide. As for the oil price, OPEC + is not about to reverse policy quickly, nor would Saudi Arabia agree without some kind of multi-billion-dollar trade deal since that nation needs Brent Crude at $90/bbl. or higher to balance its budget.

After living and investing through Trump’s first term, I learned that much of what the president says should be taken with more than a grain of salt. I consider his many pronouncements as more of a wish list, some outrageous, others as catalysts for change. He announced his new initiative called Stargate this week. It is an artificial intelligence infrastructure project, which is a joint venture formed by OpenAI, Oracle, and SoftBank. It is a great idea that promises big dividends for our country.

The three companies, he said, would invest $500 billion in AI infrastructure. Yet Elon Musk, the world’s richest man and a close Trump adviser, who was also an early investor in AI, responded to the announcement by expressing some doubt.

He posted on his social platform X that these venture partners “…don’t actually have the money,” to accomplish the president’s goal. His critique enraged many of the president’s yes-men, but the beauty of Musk is that he can speak his mind with impunity. That may get him in trouble down the road with his new-found, best bud but not right now.

The point is that investors should not take everything the president says as gospel. Instead, consider his statements more of a directional outline of where he wants the nation and the world to go. It doesn’t mean that what he wants he gets, as his first term demonstrated.

As for the markets, I am looking for a small pullback in the markets over the next few days leading up to the FOMC. I would consider that a gift. It would be a dip worth buying before the market resumes its climb to new highs.

Bill Schmick is a founding partner of Onota Partners, Inc., in the Berkshires.

The views expressed here are not necessarily those of The Lakeville Journal and The Journal does not support or oppose candidates for public office.

Latest News

Berkshire League boys tennis takes shape, sets championships for May 26

Gustavo Portillo of HVRHS volleys during the opening rounds of the postseason tournament

Riley Klein

LAKEVILLE – Berkshire League boys tennis players gathered at The Hotchkiss School Tuesday, May 19, for the opening rounds of the postseason tournament.

The event featured three separate brackets: varsity singles, varsity doubles and junior varsity doubles. Matches began early in the morning and continued until about 2 p.m. with the temperature cranked up to 90 degrees.

Keep ReadingShow less
Plans to revitalize Norfolk’s Infinity Hall unveiled

Infinity Hall, built in 1883.

Jennifer Almquist

Nearly 200 people packed the wooden seats of Norfolk’s historic Infinity Hall on Thursday, May 14, as David Rosenfeld, owner and founder of Goodworks Entertainment Group, a live entertainment and venue management company, unveiled ambitious plans to restore the restaurant and bar, expand programming and reestablish the venue as a central gathering place for the community.

Since the Norfolk Pub closed on Jan. 31, 2026, the need for a restaurant and evening gathering place has become paramount, and for years residents have wanted Infinity Hall to be more engaged with the community.

Keep ReadingShow less

May Castleberry’s next chapter

May Castleberry’s next chapter

May Castleberry at home in Lakeville.

Natalia Zukerman
Castleberry’s idea of happiness is “looking at a great painting.”

May Castleberry is a ball of sunshine and passion, though she grew up an introverted child, moving with her family from Alberta to Colorado to Texas, finding comfort in mountains, books and wide-open skies. Today, the former art book editor and museum curator has found a new home in Lakeville, where the natural beauty of the Northwest Corner continues to captivate her. Whether walking with friends, painting, reading or visiting beloved local libraries in Salisbury, Norfolk and Cornwall, Castleberry has embraced the region since making her move permanent in 2022, bringing with her a remarkable career shaped by a lifelong love of books and art.

Castleberry grew up in the world of books, and especially art books, and she credits her artist mother, an avid art book collector, with igniting her passions. Castleberry’s high school art teacher in Dallas understood how to teach students to channel their imaginations into books and art.

Keep ReadingShow less
google preferred source

Want more of our stories on Google? Click here to make us a Preferred Source.

Hoarding 
With Style: Sarah Blodgett’s art of collecting

Sarah Blodgett has turned her passion for collecting into “something larger.”

Photo by Sarah Blodgett

There is something wonderfully disarming about walking into a space where nothing feels overly polished, overly planned or pulled from a catalog — a place where history lingers in the corners, where color is fearless, where the objects on the shelves have stories to tell and where, if you are lucky, a cat named Cinnamon may be supervising the entire operation.

That is the world of Sarah Blodgett.

Keep ReadingShow less

Dr. Paul J. Fasano

Dr. Paul J. Fasano

SHARON — Dr. Paul J. Fasano DDS, of Brewster, Massachusetts, passed away peacefully after a long illness on May 10, 2026, in Boston.

Born in Boston to Philip and Laura (Stolarsky) Fasano on Dec. 13, 1946, he grew up in Dorchester with his two brothers Philip and William.Paul attended the Boston Latin School and graduated from Boston College in 1968.He later completed Dental School at New York University in 1972.

Keep ReadingShow less

David Niles Parker

David Niles Parker

KENT — David Niles Parker, 88, of Middletown, Connecticut, passed away at home on May 6, 2026.

Born January 20, 1938, in Wellesley, Massachusetts, the first child to Franklin and Katharine Niles Parker, David graduated from Wellesley High School, received his undergraduate degree from Wesleyan University, studied at the University of Chicago Divinity School, and earned his master’s in education from Harvard.

Keep ReadingShow less
google preferred source

Want more of our stories on Google? Click here to make us a Preferred Source.

google preferred source

Want more of our stories on Google? Click here to make us a Preferred Source.