Growth scare adds worry to the mix

Tariff fears, inflation worries, and now, an economic growth scare, have conspired to sour moods in the markets. The Trump trade has all but disappeared and in its place, investors are looking for defensive areas to protect capital.

Uncertainty is the bane of any market’s existence and right now that element is in abundance. Last week we have seen concerns over inflation take a back seat to an even greater worry—a slowing economy. It began with a recent retail sales number. The data was weaker than many expected as consumers pulled back on their discretionary spending.

That could have been explained away as simply a bout of buying fatigue after the strong holiday season, which is normal. However, the flash Services Purchasing Managers Index, which tracks business activity in the service sector, also showed slower growth.

Coupled with those signs, as I mentioned recently, Walmart issued a cautious outlook for the rest of the year based on fears of a fall in purchasing power among lower-income consumers. Data released on Friday Feb. 28, showed that consumers slashed their spending by the most since 2021 even as their income rose.

In addition, we have seen consumer confidence numbers and inflation expectations rise in the most recent consumer surveys. On Thursday, Feb. 27, the government announced that the real Gross Domestic Product slowed to 2.5% in the final quarter of the year versus a 2.7% growth rate in the third quarter of 2024. It also showed weaker real spending growth relative to the third quarter.

Weekly initial jobless claims at the end of February, on jumped to 242,000, above expectations of 221,000 and up from the previous week’s 220,000. Just think what will happen to jobless claims when the firing among federal workers starts to show up in the data. Pending U.S. home sales also slid to an all-time low in January as high mortgage rates, record-high home prices, and terrible weather kept home buyers away.

The Personal Consumer Expenditures Price Index (PCE), the Fed’s leading inflation marker, came in as expected at 2.6% in January and was a 0.3% increase over December. That was no surprise to me.

I have been writing for months that we would see a back-up in inflation. I also warned that the economy would begin to experience a slowdown about now. The two together would create a somewhat mild stagflation-type environment. So now that we have achieved that state of affairs, what’s next?

I expect the economy to continue to weaken and unemployment to rise somewhat in the coming quarter thanks to expected government actions on the spending, employment, immigration, and tariff fronts. There may even be a recession by the end of the second quarter or the beginning of the third quarter.

That potential outcome will depend on how deeply the Trump administration pursues its present policies.However, I also see inflation falling simultaneously for the same reasons. As a result, chatter of a rate cut or two by the Fed will be back on the table for this year, which could support markets.

On tariffs, the president insists that the 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico are on track to begin on March 4. An additional 10% tax on Chinese imports (bringing the total to 20%) will also be imposed. He also stated that the April 2 launch of reciprocal tariffs will remain in “full force and effect.”None of those statements improved investor sentiment as we closed out February.

To add insult to injury, Nvidia, the AI semiconductor leader’s fourth-quarter earnings results did not help either. While earnings, sales, and guidance were all good, the company’s stock still fell as many investors believe that ‘the bloom is off the rose’ at least temporarily in the AI trade. At the same time, another of Wall Street’s darlings, Tesla, the EV maker, has given up almost all of its Trump election gains. The slowdown in sales and Elon Musk’s political involvement has driven the stock down 40%.

The risk-off mood has seeped into most other areas of the market. Gold and precious metals as well as bitcoin and other cryptos have fallen along with stocks. Technology shares continue to decline, and more and more analysts are expressing caution overall when it comes to the market.

Investor sentiment is negative wherever you look. The CNN Fear &Greed Index is registering “extreme fear.” The American Association of Individual Investors survey (AAII) had its lowest reading of bulls since March of 2023, while bearish sentiment is up over 60%. “In the entire history of the AAII sentiment survey, there have only been six other weeks when bearish sentiment was higher,” according to Bespoke Investment Group.

My view is that the S&P 500 Index to date, is off by just a few percent from the all-time highs made less than two weeks ago. March is a traditionally tough month in the markets and while I see this pullback as a much-needed pause, the jury is out on how much lower we can go. Could we see further declines, say 8-10% overall in the month ahead? That determination is in the hands of one single individual, Donald Trump.

Bill Schmick is the founding partner of Onota Partners, Inc., in the Berkshires.