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Forum speaker gives view on future of U.S., Russia

FALLS VILLAGE — Russian president Vladimir Putin may have “astounded everybody with his audacity” in recent weeks, but Thomas Graham thinks Putin’s overall strategy is problematic.Graham, a veteran of the State Department, the Foreign Service, the National Security Council and Kissinger Associates, where he is managing director, spoke on Russia’s Strategic Challenges at the Salisbury Forum at Housatonic Valley Regional High School Friday, March 21.Graham said that in Putin’s world, “Russia is destined to be a country of consequence.”And it was, until the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.Since the 1700s, Russia played a major role in Europe and was considered one of the Great Powers, along with Great Britain, France and Germany.Twice Russian troops drove deep into the heart of Europe — once to vanquish Napoleon, and again to destroy Hitler.Even after the 1917 Bolshevik revolution and the collapse of the old Russian empire, Russia maintained a world-wide influence, promoting and supporting revolutionary movements.Graham said the decade between 1991 and 2001 was a bad one for Russia.“Putin believes it is time to put an end to this period of national humiliation.”Graham said that Putin is insistent that Russia matters again.“Is he right?”Graham was skeptical. He said that Russia is respected and feared, but some observers see the recent aggressive behavior as a blip in a long-term decline.Graham pointed out that a key Russian asset — its nuclear arsenal — is not as powerful a deterrent in the age of cyberwarfare.The shale gas revolution is having a negative effect on Russia’s oil and gas exports; the Russian language is fading as a lingua franca in the territory of the former USSR; hard science education is in decline, as is the Russian population in general.“So Russia faces an uncertain future.”Graham said the strategic challenges for Russia are:• Reasserting Russian primacy in the former USSR• Striking a balance between Europe and Asia• Dealing with unrest in the Muslim south• Dealing with the United States, which Putin still regards as Russia’s greatest adversary.Graham said that Putin is from the realist or Great Power school of foreign policy. “Hard power remains the coin of the realm.”Only Great Powers can have a truly independent foreign policy, and Putin has spent 14 years in office seeking to restore Russia’s power.Putin must have an economy that can compete internationally — and the Russian economy needs to modernize, make better use of technology and revamp public health and education.Graham said that Putin and the Russian leadership “understand this, but have not been able to decide on a specific course.”“To modernize, Russia needs to open up the political system,” he said. But thus far Putin has been unable or unwilling to take on the oligarchs who benefit from the current system and provide much of his support.“I suggest that authoritarian turn is not the road to success,” Graham said.Graham said Putin needs the liberal professional class — the Western-oriented, tech savvy, well-educated crowd. The trick will be how to give them a stake in the system.Putin needs to deal with socio-economic unrest in the provinces, which are stagnating economically. Graham said the current policy, of buying off discontent to maintain an apathetic population, “is not a good long-term strategy.”Threats from all sidesAnd Putin needs to deal with ethnic and nationalistic trends. “I find it surprising to see Putin take on this bold Russian nationalism,” said Graham. “He’s playing with fire.”In the territory of the old USSR, China is threatening, with increased commercial activity in central Asia that bypasses the Russians. And radical Islamic movements in the Caucasus and central Asia add an element of instability to an already fragile political system.“So it isn’t surprising that Putin is reasserting Russia’s role.”Putin’s proposed Eurasian Union — to include all the former Soviet republics, is clearly meant to be dominated by Russia, Graham said.But key players Ukraine and Uzbekistan are not playing along. “Without them a Eurasian Union makes no sense. Ukraine is Russia’s gateway to Europe; Uzbekistan is the biggest country in central Asia. And neither wants to be part of a Russian-dominated economic entity.”The successful annexation of Crimea may be a short-term, tactical victory for Putin, but in the long run Putin could well lose the rest of Ukraine, Graham said.Meanwhile,the Uzbeks are playing Russia, China and the U.S. against each other.Graham said that to Russia at the moment, Europe is more important than Asia. “Ever since Peter the Great, Russia has measured itself by European standards.”But Russia can’t afford to ignore Asia, he continued. And Russia can’t afford to allow markets east of Lake Baikal to become dominated by China. So they need to develop the Russian Far East and Siberia — in cooperation with Japan, South Korea and the U.S.Graham said that Russia and China serve as a counterweight to the U.S. in the United Nations, and Russia needs a counterweight to China, in the form of a unified Europe —but Putin doesn’t see it that way.“Russia still feels more comfortable dealing with individual states, not with entities like the European Union.”To that end, Putin has sought closer relations with Germany; has tried to drive wedges in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization; and has been aggressive in Georgia and now Ukraine.“It doesn’t make sense — because the world isn’t centered on European politics,” Graham said.Dangers of a radical IslamIn the Muslim south, radical movements could endanger stability of Russian provinces. If the “corrupt central government” of Afghanistan collapses and the Taliban take over, and if nothing is done about the drug trade, Russia will need to work with regional powers to contain the situation.“Radical Islam will become a more potent political force,” said Graham. “Russia will need cooperation from the other players.”Graham said that Putin’s belief that the U.S. wants a unipolar world and that American policy in the last 20 years has been designed to weaken Russia “no longer makes any sense. ““The U.S. is trying to deal with the vulnerabilities exposed by the financial crisis. The U.S. doesn’t have the sway it had 14 years ago, when Putin first came to power.“We are retrenching. The U.S. is no longer expanding into the power vacuum of the old USSR.“This should create a solid foundation for cooperation. From Moscow’s standpoint the U.S. is the only country that can help with these challenges.“The problem is that Putin is on a different path.”Russia vs. United StatesGraham said the next decade won’t be dull. “We will likely see the most consequential changes, see the emergence of a new global equilibrium. The success Russia has in meeting its strategic challenges will determine if Russia is in fact a Great Power and can challenge the U.S.”As for the challenge to American policymakers, Graham offered this:“After 20 years experience in the U.S. government, I can safely say that Russia is one of the most prickly powers.“The only thing I am confident of is it will not get any easier.”

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