First-quarter gains were led by technology

The NASDAQ 100 index jumped more than 20% from its December 2022 lows. The textbook definition indicates that when a market does that, it officially leaves a bear market and enters the bull market territory.

A handful of stocks can be credited with not only pushing the tech sector higher but also dragging the rest of the market up with it. I’m sure you can guess the names—Meta, Apple, Netflix, Google, and Microsoft—they all did yeoman’s work in the first quarter.

In my opinion, the motivation for crowding into these stocks can be explained with a single word—fear. Fear of financial contagion. Fear of a gathering recession. Fear of a Fed that may have overstayed its role as an inflation fighter. All these companies represent a place to hide out. They have little debt, strong cash flows, and solid business models.

Fear is also the reason investors have flocked to gold and precious metal miners. Throughout history, whenever there has been a question of financial stability in the banking system, gold seems to shine. The fact that the government and the private sector have rushed to assure all of us that the system is stable, and a few bank failures are nothing to get upset about was commendable and expected. But has it assuaged the market’s worries that we have yet to see another foot to fall in this sector? No, depositors are still moving money out of smaller banks into larger banks and into U.S. Treasury bills, money market funds, and out of checking and saving accounts.

On the positive side, the recent banking crisis has forced the Fed to pump money into the credit markets. That has caused the equity markets to rise as the liquidity in the financial system increased. The flow of billions of dollars from the central bank into the banking sector has effectively put the Fed’s quantitative tightening program on hold for now.

In addition, many investors are convinced that the regime of interest rate hikes is over. They point to the impact the Fed’s rapid rate rise over the last year has had on the banking system. Further hikes could translate into even more bank failures, which is something the Fed will need to avoid. As such, the next move by the Fed will be to cut interest rates and do so before the end of the year.

I am still thinking we have room to run here on the S&P 500 Index. In the next few weeks, my upside target of 4,370 could be achieved but it won’t be a smooth ride. Near-term resistance on the benchmark index is right here, around 4,100. Investors for behavioral reasons are attracted to or repelled by round numbers. The 200-day moving average (DMA) has held like a champ throughout this period, which is an encouraging sign.

All the averages, however, are fairly stretched, so a stalling out and a bit of selling should be expected in the near term. One area that has shown exceptional strength is the precious metals area, especially gold, and silver. Aggressive investors in the short-term might want to dabble in these commodities if there is a pullback in price next week.

 

Bill Schmick is a founding partner of Onota Partners, Inc., in the Berkshires.  None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice.  Email him at bill@schmicksretiredinvestor.com.

The views expressed here are not necessarily those of The Lakeville Journal and The Journal does not support or oppose candidates for public office.

Latest News

Club baseball at Fuessenich Park

Travel league baseball came to Torrington Thursday, June 26, when the Berkshire Bears Select Team played the Connecticut Moose 18U squad. The Moose won 6-4 in a back-and-forth game. Two players on the Bears play varsity ball at Housatonic Valley Regional High School: shortstop Anthony Foley and first baseman Wes Allyn. Foley went 1-for-3 at bat with an RBI in the game at Fuessenich Park.

 

  Anthony Foley, rising senior at Housatonic Valley Regional High School, went 1-for-3 at bat for the Bears June 26.Photo by Riley Klein 

 
Siglio Press: Uncommon books at the intersection of art and literature

Uncommon books at the intersection of art and literature.

Richard Kraft

Siglio Press is a small, independent publishing house based in Egremont, Massachusetts, known for producing “uncommon books at the intersection of art and literature.” Founded and run by editor and publisher Lisa Pearson, Siglio has, since 2008, designed books that challenge conventions of both form and content.

A visit to Pearson’s airy studio suggests uncommon work, to be sure. Each of four very large tables were covered with what looked to be thousands of miniature squares of inkjet-printed, kaleidoscopically colored pieces of paper. Another table was covered with dozens of book/illustration-size, abstracted images of deer, made up of colored dots. For the enchanted and the mystified, Pearson kindly explained that these pieces were to be collaged together as artworks by the artist Richard Kraft (a frequent contributor to the Siglio Press and Pearson’s husband). The works would be accompanied by writings by two poets, Elizabeth Zuba and Monica Torre, in an as-yet-to-be-named book, inspired by a found copy of a worn French children’s book from the 1930s called “Robin de Bois” (Robin Hood).

Keep ReadingShow less
Cycling season: A roundup of our region’s rentals and where to ride them

Cyclists head south on the rail trail from Copake Falls.

Alec Linden

After a shaky start, summer has well and truly descended upon the Litchfield, Berkshire and Taconic hills, and there is no better way to get out and enjoy long-awaited good weather than on two wheels. Below, find a brief guide for those who feel the pull of the rail trail, but have yet to purchase their own ten-speed. Temporary rides are available in the tri-corner region, and their purveyors are eager to get residents of all ages, abilities and inclinations out into the open road (or bike path).

For those lucky enough to already possess their own bike, perhaps the routes described will inspire a new way to spend a Sunday afternoon. For more, visit lakevillejournal.com/tag/bike-route to check out two ride-guides from local cyclists that will appeal to enthusiasts of many levels looking for a varied trip through the region’s stunning summer scenery.

Keep ReadingShow less