Thank you!
Your support is sustaining the future of local news in our communities.

Are predictions markets displacing crypto trading?

The introduction of prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi are exploding in popularity. At the same time crypto currency trading seems to be falling off a cliff. Are the two connected?

“Crypto is so yesterday,” said one Gen Z trader, in response to my question. Younger investors are turning their attention to platforms where users can trade contracts on the outcome of future events. Today, one can bet on everything from the outcome of the mid-term elections to when the next Fed interest rate cut will occur. Not only can you bet on political or cultural events but increasingly on sports and real-world events.

I suspect that economic conditionsmay be behind Gen Z’s shifting preferences. The average salary for a Gen Z is under $40,000. Speculating in Bitcoin has become an expensive proposition with the price around $63,000 per coin. It has traded as high as $124,000. That is a far cry from the days of $15,000 or less.

That doesn’t mean the younger generations are completely abandoning crypto currencies but are instead changing the way they speculate. In addition, the narrative has changed. The number of HODLs “Hold on for dear life” have declined as dreams ofa $1 million Bitcoin seem less feasible. Prediction markets offer a simpler, cheaper and more scalable alternative.

You can still bet on the future price of crypto, along with individual stocks, bonds, gold, or whatever. “Why buy Bitcoin when you can buy a cheap contract that offers you the same chance to profit?” argues another Gen Z trader.The simplicity of the prediction market structure is also appealing. There are no research reports, promises of gains or losses based on scenarios or schedules. The price you pay reflects a bet on a simple yes or no, to happen or not to happen. It appeals to a generation increasingly skeptical of project promises.

However, the prediction market uses cryptocurrency infrastructure to underpin their platform. Custody, settlement and payment processes run on block chain technology. With the support of stablecoins. Bitcoin contracts are still one of the most active speculative markets.

Another encouraging development is that prediction market platforms are regulated by the Commodity Futures Reading Commission. As such all prices are set by buyers and sellers and not by “the house.” In many ways, prediction market contracts are like trading futures contracts. You are essentially buying or selling a financial derivative when you invest in prediction contracts.

In 2025, this prediction markets saw trading volume expand to more than $27.9 billion. Open interest, which is the total value locked in contracts broke $1 billion. These contracts are both liquid and easy to trade. One can pay for them in both crypto currencies and regular currencies.

Supporters argue that these platforms represent a new frontier for fintech.Their platforms innovation has combined the blending of capital markets, crypto, prediction-economics and sports betting into one. The rapid growth in this new avenue of investment, speculation, or just plain gambling depending upon your view, has attracted outside investment. Several institutional players believe this new technology has enormous potential. The retail brokerage firm, Robin Hood, as well as Coinbase Global are entering the market.No surprise there, but some of the largest exchanges and financial institutions in the world are also embracing these betting platforms.

In October 2025, The New York Stock Exchange parent company, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), purchased a $2 billion stake in prediction leader, Polymarket. The S&P Down Jones Indices also announced a partnership with another fintech company, Dinari, to create a crypto-focused index. DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment, two sports betting operators, entered the prediction markets in December 2025. Flutter joined hands with the CME Group, to launch FanDuel Predicts in five U.S. states and plans to go nationwide this year.

Supporters argue that these platforms use innovation financial technology tools that allow traders to better discover efficient pricing of event risk. Yet prediction markets today are sitting astride several industry faultlines. Including sports on their platforms, for example, are encroaching on already established regulatory domains.

Many states are in an uproar as a result, predicting that these new markets make it easier for coaches, players, or referees to bet on matches they may be able to influence.The wave of recent betting scandals in 2025 makes regulator’s fears that much more immediate. Rather than new investment alternatives, many regulators see them as an easy avenue toward further corruption.

This week two congress representatives Blake Moore (R-UT) and Salud Carbajal(D-Ca) jumped into the fray by introducing legislation that would prohibit the listing of contracts for sale related to terrorism, assassination, war, gaming (sports or athletic competitions ), or illegal activity. Betting on certain outcomes in the U.S./ Iran conflict may have sparked this bipartisan effort to reign in the prediction markets when it comes to what they deem to be threats to public safety and national security risks.

In my opinion, trying to stem the flow of this new prediction market arena in the age of AI is futile. Over the next ten years, the sector is projected to reach a market size of $95 billion, with a growth rate of 47%.Even an old codger like me, is already monitoring the betting on any number of events from war in Iran to the earnings on Nvidia. I suggest you do the same.

Bill Schmick is a founding partner of Onota Partners, Inc., in the Berkshires.Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of Onota Partners, Inc. (OPI).

The views expressed here are not necessarily those of The Lakeville Journal and The Journal does not support or oppose candidates for public office.

Latest News

August, one bass at a time

August, one bass at a time

This fish took a Wooly Bugger in basic black, with rubber legs. Always get the rubber legs.

Patrick L. Sullivan
Largemouth bass are not picky eaters. When engaged they usually dive and tug. Once in a while they leap. They are easily discouraged, however, and after a minute or two come meekly to the net.

Every August I shift gears and head to the ancestral HQ with no electricity, minimal plumbing and a warm-water lake chock-full of largemouth bass, not to mention smallmouth, perch, pickerel and panfish. The largemouth are the main attraction.

I used an antique rowboat for years. Then a canoe, which was awkward to manage solo, especially when the wind picked up.

Keep ReadingShow less

An outdoor festival for Broadway fans

An outdoor festival for Broadway fans
An outdoor festival for Broadway fans
An outdoor festival for Broadway fans

Broadway is going way off Broadway when it heads outdoors for The Festival at Hutton Brickyards in Kingston Aug. 14-16, transforming the Hudson River waterfront into a three-day celebration of show tunes, stars and sing-alongs. The inaugural event features an all-star lineup including Audra McDonald, Kelli O’Hara, Renée Elise Goldsberry, Brian Stokes Mitchell and dozens more, along with a 30th anniversary celebration of the musical “Rent” featuring original cast members.

Hutton Brickyards is a former 19th-century brickyard transformed into a historic riverfront hotel and event destination spanning 100 acres along the Hudson. Beyond the nightly concerts, festivalgoers can expect campfire sing-alongs, dance parties, master classes, costume contests and a marketplace highlighting Hudson Valley food, drinks and artisans.

Keep ReadingShow less
Crandell Theatre celebrates 100 years of film, community and Chatham history

The Crandell Theatre in 1948.

Provided
Originally built as an “atmospheric theater,” the Crandell was designed to transport audiences beyond the walls of the auditorium. Its sloped floor, proscenium arch, orchestra pit and balcony seating reflected the grandeur of early 20th-century movie palaces.

Crandell Theatre in Chatham has spent a century bringing stories to the big screen, and this December the historic theater will celebrate its 100th anniversary with a yearlong tribute to the films, filmmakers and community members who have helped keep it alive.

The celebration continues Sunday, Aug. 23, with a special screening of Martin Scorsese’s “The King of Comedy,” presented as part of the theater’s 100th Anniversary Series by Bill Kramer, CEO of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. Kramer will introduce the 1982 film, a darkly comic exploration of celebrity, obsession and the pursuit of fame.

Keep ReadingShow less
google preferred source

Want more of our stories on Google? Click here to make us a Preferred Source.

Arts Connected fundraiser celebrates Northwest Connecticut’s creative community

MOMIX is one of the featured performers at this year’s Arts Connected fundraiser on Aug. 29.

Provided

The Northwest Connecticut Arts Council will celebrate the region’s vibrant arts community with Arts Connected 2026, its annual fundraising event, on Saturday, Aug. 29, from 5 to 8 p.m. at Buck’s Rock Camp in New Milford.

More than a fundraiser, Arts Connected is designed as a celebration of the artists, performers and organizations that make the Northwest Corner’s cultural landscape thrive. Guests can enjoy live music and performances, a curated gallery of artwork by regional artists, local food and drinks, and opportunities to connect with fellow arts supporters. Tickets include hors d’oeuvres, an open bar and all entertainment.

Keep ReadingShow less
At 90, artist Robert Cronin still finds new ways to paint
Falls Village Artist Robert Cronin describes his process, from drawing to painted canvas.
L. Tomaino
Once I get all the colors in, they change. Who knows? I might consider more radical colors and then bring it back a little.
— Robert Cronin

Renowned painter Robert Cronin of Falls Village celebrated his 90th birthday with an exhibition, “Robert Cronin: New Paintings,” at the Hunt Library in Falls Village which opened Aug. 8 and will be on view through Sept. 11.

Cronin paints most days in his home studio. He keeps his work fresh by trying new things and has had different phases of work, including figure paintings, paintings on paper, a modular, circle and enclosure series of paintings, as well as a tinplate sculpture series.

Keep ReadingShow less

All aboard the Litchfield County Clipper

All aboard the Litchfield County Clipper

The Litchfield County Clipper runs between Thomaston and Torrington.

Allison Gollenberg

Every Sunday until the end of August, passengers can ride back in time on the Litchfield County Clipper, a scenic train running between Thomaston and Torrington on the county’s only passenger rail line.

The train, operated by the Railroad Museum of New England and the Naugatuck Railroad, follows the Naugatuck River through Mattatuck State Forest and along the Thomaston Dam, making it the only railroad in the country that operates over the face of an active dam. For $26.50 passengers can ride all day, boarding or disembarking at any of the train’s three stops, which include two stops in Torrington and one in Thomaston.

Keep ReadingShow less
google preferred source

Want more of our stories on Google? Click here to make us a Preferred Source.

google preferred source

Want more of our stories on Google? Click here to make us a Preferred Source.