By now, everyone understands rising beef prices are a never-ending story. Fewer consumers complain about seafood prices. That may change as sticker shock hits the fish counter.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that fish and seafood prices increased by 3.89% so far in the first quarter of 2026 compared to prices in 2025. During the same period, the overall inflation rate was 1.19%. Of course, that was small potatoes compared to the price of beef, which surged 13% amid strong demand and tight supplies.
For the rest of this year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture expects seafood prices to rise faster than the historical average of 4.60% per year. For as long as I can remember, seafood in the U.S. has been a luxury item that, year after year, has climbed in price. Prices for fresh fish and seafood are 133.51% higher in 2026 than in 1997. In 2024, seafood had the highest average retail price among protein sources, surpassing beef and veal.
Beef, on the other hand, remained low and within the means of most Americans until recent years. Part of the price difference is attributable to growing demand for seafood in the U.S., one of the world’s largest seafood markets. However, 90% of the seafood consumed is imported from other countries.
It was not until I began traveling the world in my teens that I realized that, in many countries, seafood was both cheap and plentiful. China, Indonesia, and Vietnam are the top suppliers of our fish, and all of them have been slapped with high tariffs thanks to Donald Trump. But don’t just blame Donald Trump for the rising prices.
In recent years, consumers worldwide have begun paying more for fish. Climate change, despite deniers, has had a profound impact on the world’s oceans. Rising temperatures and acidification are impacting the distribution and abundance of many underwater species. Just look at the Gulf of Maine as an example. The warmer water has led to a decline in the lobster population to the point where I paid $49 for a lobster roll last weekend in Martha’s Vineyard.
Over the last six years, Maine’s lobster catch has declined from 121 million pounds to 79 million. This drop reflects a broader regional shift, as the Gulf of Maine has been leading the oceans in warming driven by climate change. As a result, the codfish industry has been decimated, while shrimping has gone nowhere as marine life fled to cooler waters. Similarly, salmon populations in the Pacific Ocean are experiencing the same trend.
On a trip to visit relatives in Norway a few years ago, I also learned that many species are affected by pollutants such as plastics, pesticides, and industrial waste. Thanks to ocean currents, much of the world’s ocean trash is winding up in the Scandinavian region. This has led to increasing regulation and certification as governments try to reverse this trend. The costs are passed on to consumers through higher prices and a smaller supply of fish.
Beyond production, the costs of catching fish are steep: harvesting is more labor-intensive, product spoilage occurs faster, and loss rates are higher at every stage from ocean to plate.
A pound of ground beef might cost $6.75 per pound, but a comparable portion of fresh salmon or cod will run you anywhere from $8 to $14 per pound. A whole chicken is even cheaper, about $2/pound. The difference between catching fish and raising cattle, pigs, and chickens is that ranchers and farmers use a controlled environment to optimize feed, breeding, and growth timelines. Wild-caught fishing offers none of the above.
Commercial boats depart with a fully paid crew, fuel accounting for 5-10% of their earnings, ice, and refrigeration units, and face increasingly uncertain weather, shifting fish populations, regulations, and seasonal closures. There is no guarantee of a full catch, whereas a rancher can be certain of how many pounds of beef he will produce in a month.
At the supermarket, beef and chicken have much longer shelf lives as well. Fresh seafood is one of the most perishable items on a grocer’s shelves. Anywhere from 8 to 20 percent of seafood is spoiled before it reaches consumers (the shrink rate). Supermarkets know this and mark up their fish to account for that spillage rate. Frozen seafood has a near-zero shrink rate, which is why it is much cheaper than fresh fish.
And keeping fish cold is expensive. Most commercial fishing takes place far from supermarkets. Many products, such as wild salmon, Atlantic cod, and imported shrimp, may travel thousands of miles by boat, truck, and air before hitting your local grocery shelf. At every step in the chain, keeping fish cold requires energy, specialized equipment, and speed. Unlike beef, which spoils more slowly, fish spoils quickly if it is not handled precisely.
Another difference between fish and a steer is that you get a greater yield from the beef carcass. About 63% of its live weight is boneless beef. A whole fish yields far less. No more than 30-50% of the fish is edible. If demand for wild-caught fish picks up, you can’t just catch more. Harvests are constrained by quotas, seasonal availability, and the sheer biological limits of fish populations.
It is the reason aquaculture has exploded worldwide, with fish farms popping up everywhere. Today, roughly half of all seafood consumed globally is farmed fish. Fish farms can scale up like livestock if demand rises. That’s why tilapia and catfish, for example, are much cheaper than wild salmon, cod, and shrimp. When it comes down to it, you may have noticed that not all fish are expensive. Canned tuna is practically a loss leader, with cans going for a dollar or less. The price differential between fish and meat is really a gap between industrialized livestock production and wild-caught fresh seafood. The more you consume farmed fish that is frozen for transport or canned, the cheaper it becomes.
Bill Schmick is a founding partner of Onota Partners, Inc., in the Berkshires.Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of Onota Partners, Inc. (OPI).None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice.
