It’s been one heck of a two weeks. One would think the world was coming to an end, given the way global markets have behaved. You may not be able to make much sense of why markets sold off so quickly, but out of the carnage we may be able to predict what comes next. Here’s why.Stock market free falls, such as the one we are presently experiencing, are called waterfall declines, which are sudden drops of 20 percent or more compressed into a few short weeks or days. They are fairly rare events and most follow a roughly similar pattern consisting of three phases. The first phase is the decline itself followed by a sharp bounce higher. We may be experiencing that bounce right now. Following the bounce (and possible retest of the lows), the market should drift into a basing period that could last for one to three months. During that time the market could move up and down in a sideways pattern similar to what we experienced in May through June of this year. Finally, in the last phase there is a rally lasting six to 12 months that could move the markets higher by about 25 percent.In reviewing 10 waterfall declines from 1929 thorough 2002, three months after the post-waterfall low, the stock market was higher in all 10 cases. Six months later, the market was higher in nine of the 10 cases with the average gain at 17 percent. A year later the market was higher in nine out of 10 cases with the average gain equal to 24 percent. The financial crisis of 2008-09 was in a league all by itself. The market, three months after the low of March 2009, was up 37 percent.If we drill down even further, say to the next two weeks, one can expect a relief rally of as much as 10 percent. Then, if the pattern holds, we should retest the bottom. In this case, if we have truly found a bottom for the S&P 500 Index at around 1,100, we should bounce again from there.“So what happens if we break down through that 1,100 level?” asked a nervous client from Manhattan.The short answer is 1,100 wasn’t the bottom and we go lower, by as much as 10 percent, to S&P 1,000.Waterfall declines are often recession related. There have been exceptions to that rule. For example, in 1987 the market fell sharply for two days only to spring back. The dot-com boom and bust of 2002 was another waterfall decline that did not usher in a recession.So what is the best way to navigate through a waterfall decline and its aftermath? It is obvious that one should ride out the turbulence; at least for the next few months. If we are truly entering into a recession, the economic data will confirm that fear or dispel it. If we are going into a double-dip, then I advise you to get defensive: bonds, dividend-paying stocks, etc. But it may turn out that the market was simply correcting, as it does periodically after a long and profitable run. Remember, the S&P 500 Index was up over 80 percent in over two years, so a 20 percent pullback doesn’t look as serious from that perspective. Bill Schmick is registered as an investment advisor representative with Berkshire Money Management. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own. None of the information presented here should be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. Direct inquires to Bill at 888-232-6072 or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com.
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The organic runway at HVSFW puts sustainable style among the apple trees at Stone Ridge Orchard.
Jay Ballesteros
That’s the question behind Hudson Valley Sustainable Fashion Week[end], a two-day celebration of sustainable style, local makers and the possibilities of keeping clothing in circulation. The weekend lands at Stone Ridge Orchard, a 200-year-old working farm, on Sept. 25 and 26, pairing an evening fashion show with a new all-ages Slow Fashion Fair.
“To me, slow fashion means intentional fashion. Careful, thoughtful, human,” said Joanne Louis-Paul, the event’s communications director. “Slow fashion is the speed at which one person can sew an intricately detailed dress. It’s taking the time to go to a thrift store or clothing swap and sifting through an unknown bounty of possibilities. It’s extending the life of a piece of clothing for as long as possible.”
In everyday terms, she said, “It’s stopping to think before purchasing anything or giving anything away.”
Friday’s fourth annual Organic Runway brings Hudson Valley designers to the farm for a sunset showcase of garments made from repurposed textiles and produced locally. Designers include Clare Bare, ennui, Kacy Coyle, KNUD, la vie après l’amour, Last Night on Earth, So Vicki and Touch Threads. The evening runs from 4 to 8 p.m., giving attendees time to pick apples and sip local cider before settling in for the runway.
“We’re all about the whimsy here at HVSFW,” Louis-Paul said. “The runway is so incredibly dreamy. Being outside makes for an unpredictable, one-of-a-kind backdrop every year, and there’s just nothing like that sunset glow.”
Models walk the organic runway at HVSFW. Ilan Harel
The unlikely pairing of fashion and farming is also part of the point.
“Once you’re sitting amongst the apple trees, you realize how much sense it makes to mend the relationship between fashion and nature,” she said.
Saturday introduces the inaugural Slow Fashion Fair, from 11 a.m. to 5 p.m., with workshops, mending, fiber art, vendors, music, eco-friendly kids’ crafts and a clothing swap. There will even be sheep.
“We wanted to have a fair so we could invite more people in the eco-friendly ecosystem into the fold,” Louis-Paul said. “We get to highlight not only designers, but makers and artisans of all kinds.”
The organizers hope the fair appeals not only to people already thinking about climate and sustainability but also to those encountering the ideas for the first time. With mending, a clothing swap and hands-on workshops, the emphasis is on showing visitors things they can actually do.
“There are so many things anyone can start doing today,” Louis-Paul said. “From something as simple as sewing a patch onto a stain or tear to hosting a mini clothing swap at your house with friends and family, there are tons of ways to engage with your wardrobe more thoughtfully.”
She speaks from experience. Before becoming involved with the event, she said, secondhand shopping held little appeal.
“As someone who never liked the idea of thrifting, I am now completely sold on circular fashion,” she said. “I recently sewed a broken strap on a dress I got at a clothing swap, and I felt so accomplished! Being in this world has shown me that conscious consumption is attainable and fun.”
But behind the fun is a serious concern about what happens to clothing once consumers decide they no longer want it.
“Just because you throw it away doesn’t mean it goes away,” she said, pointing to discarded clothing accumulating in other parts of the world and the microplastics shed by synthetic fabrics. “The planet and people are suffering because of this throwaway culture we’ve adopted. If an outfit is new but super cheap, believe there’s a high cost to someone else.”
For more information and tickets, visit hvsfw.org
Susan Schneider, owner of Shandell’s in Ashley Falls, in her studio.
Susan Schneider, owner of Shandell’s in Ashley Falls, in her studio.
She has been creating lampshades for 25 years and has settled in Ashley Falls, where she is renovating a barn behind her house for a larger studio. Her mission: “Changing the view on plain white lampshades, one at a time!”
Besides using marbled paper, she uses papyrus, silk and hand-painted papers for the shades.
Shandell’s on Main Street, offers a large selection of marbled decorative home items on its website — trays, coasters and bookends, to name a few — as well as scarves and belts. Schneider will also customize items and creates custom wallpaper, gifts and favors for weddings and special events. She offers consultations by appointment.
Schneider explained how she began making lampshades.
“I was in business as an antiques and textile dealer, needing lampshades at the time (the early 1990s). I had a dealer who used to make lampshades. She was moving and sold me everything she had in her barn for making them. Arcs, templates for lampshades, and tools.”
Schneider used the marbled paper from the endpapers of old books to make small lampshades.
“I collected those voraciously.”
The papers were too small for the larger lampshades she wanted to make. To get paper in the size she needed, she decided to learn how to marble.
That was 10 years ago. She now has 20 tanks for marbling, including one 10-foot tank that allows her to make 3 yards of fabric at a time.
As she demonstrated the marbling process, making covers for journals, it was easy to see why she “got hooked.”
Susan Schneider, owner of Shandell’s, creates a variety of products with marbleized surfaces in her Ashley Falls studio.L. Tomaino
She explained that marbling takes a couple of days of preparation. She prepares water mixed with carrageenan the night before so that it thickens and becomes a viscous liquid onto which the acrylic paints can be dropped. Paper or fabric must also be prepared with alum, which “makes the paint stick,” she said, a day or two ahead of time.
When she was ready to start, Schneider first used a level to make sure the tank was even. Then she pulled a squeegee across the surface of the carrageenan mixture to break the surface tension, followed by strips of newsprint for the same purpose. She also dipped small pieces of newsprint into the mixture.
“The hardest thing to teach people is to break the surface tension first,” she noted.
Next, she used droppers to place rows of paint onto the mixture.
“It’s a joyful process,” she said as she chose more colors. “It’s totally the pleasure of the colors.”
She explained, “The colors are stopped from spreading by the surface tension.”
Then she added newsprint around the edges of the tank to break the tension again and added another layer of color. Next, she used a marbling comb, slowly dragging it back and forth across the width of the tank to create a feather-like design.
Combs come in many sizes, with teeth spaced at different intervals and in different patterns. She chose another comb to drag through the length of the tank, making the design more intricate before laying two pieces of paper on the surface. After a second or two, she lifted them, perfectly capturing the pattern, and carried them to the sink for a rinse with water.
Once she squeegeed away the paint left in the tank, she was ready to begin the process again.
Next, she created a different type of design, dripping colors in a less ordered array, then twirling them into curving lines and circles with a thin rod.
When the surface was ready, she laid a journal cover on top, then lifted it out, covered in a vibrant pattern of swirling colors.
For observers, the process can seem magical.
Schneider loves to share the delight of marbling by teaching classes at Dewey Hall in Sheffield. Upcoming classes will be held Nov. 20, 21 and 22. Beginning in November, she will also offer private classes in her home studio. Schneider had never pictured herself having a business like Shandell’s, but she discovered a passion for creating, as she says, “things that make you smile.”
For more information about her work and upcoming classes or to contact her for a consultation, visit shandells.com.
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Muriel Stockdale, left, and judge Roger McKee during the awards announcement at the juried art show at Trinity Episcopal Church. Stockdale\u2019s \u201cKevin\u201d was the second place winner.
Patrick L. Sullivan
Organizer Theresa Kenny said the show attracted some 66 artists, 10 of whom were new to the show.
Judge Roger McKee, who recently retired as an art teacher at Salisbury School, said of the winning work, “The technical mastery here is overwhelming.”
Roger McKee naming the winners with the first place entry over his left shoulder. Patrick L. Sullivan
Hwang was unable to attend the reception, but the second- and third-place finishers were on hand.
Second place went to Muriel Stockdale’s “Kevin.” McKee said the piece “has just enough to be compelling without getting too caught up in the details.”
Muriel Stockdale’s “Kevin” took second place in the juried art show at Trinity Episcopal Church.Patrick L. Sullivan
Joan Macfarlane’s “Branching Out” was the third-place winner. McKee described the piece as “a compelling balance of realism and interpretation.”
McKee and Emily Cox served as judges. Cox could not attend the reception, but McKee said they began their work by looking at the entire show, then went through it a second time, taking photos with their phones of the standout pieces before comparing notes.
“There was a lot of overlap,” he said. “We argued a little bit and then came to an agreement.”
The show is open for viewing Saturday and Sunday, Sept. 26 and 27, from noon to 4 p.m.
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