It’s been one heck of a two weeks. One would think the world was coming to an end, given the way global markets have behaved. You may not be able to make much sense of why markets sold off so quickly, but out of the carnage we may be able to predict what comes next. Here’s why.Stock market free falls, such as the one we are presently experiencing, are called waterfall declines, which are sudden drops of 20 percent or more compressed into a few short weeks or days. They are fairly rare events and most follow a roughly similar pattern consisting of three phases. The first phase is the decline itself followed by a sharp bounce higher. We may be experiencing that bounce right now. Following the bounce (and possible retest of the lows), the market should drift into a basing period that could last for one to three months. During that time the market could move up and down in a sideways pattern similar to what we experienced in May through June of this year. Finally, in the last phase there is a rally lasting six to 12 months that could move the markets higher by about 25 percent.In reviewing 10 waterfall declines from 1929 thorough 2002, three months after the post-waterfall low, the stock market was higher in all 10 cases. Six months later, the market was higher in nine of the 10 cases with the average gain at 17 percent. A year later the market was higher in nine out of 10 cases with the average gain equal to 24 percent. The financial crisis of 2008-09 was in a league all by itself. The market, three months after the low of March 2009, was up 37 percent.If we drill down even further, say to the next two weeks, one can expect a relief rally of as much as 10 percent. Then, if the pattern holds, we should retest the bottom. In this case, if we have truly found a bottom for the S&P 500 Index at around 1,100, we should bounce again from there.“So what happens if we break down through that 1,100 level?” asked a nervous client from Manhattan.The short answer is 1,100 wasn’t the bottom and we go lower, by as much as 10 percent, to S&P 1,000.Waterfall declines are often recession related. There have been exceptions to that rule. For example, in 1987 the market fell sharply for two days only to spring back. The dot-com boom and bust of 2002 was another waterfall decline that did not usher in a recession.So what is the best way to navigate through a waterfall decline and its aftermath? It is obvious that one should ride out the turbulence; at least for the next few months. If we are truly entering into a recession, the economic data will confirm that fear or dispel it. If we are going into a double-dip, then I advise you to get defensive: bonds, dividend-paying stocks, etc. But it may turn out that the market was simply correcting, as it does periodically after a long and profitable run. Remember, the S&P 500 Index was up over 80 percent in over two years, so a 20 percent pullback doesn’t look as serious from that perspective. Bill Schmick is registered as an investment advisor representative with Berkshire Money Management. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own. None of the information presented here should be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. Direct inquires to Bill at 888-232-6072 or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com.
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Small trout, big lasagna and bad movies
Patrick L. Sullivan
The Men of CACA. From left, the author, Steve DeSimone, and Tom Gallucio.
I recently convened the fall meeting of CACA, which stands for Cinema, Angling and Culinary Appreciation.
This takes place in Phoenicia, New York. We fish all day, make a bountiful dinner, and watch the world’s worst movies.
CACA was founded about 25 years ago, back when we had to worry about the elderly VCR eating the tape of “Death Race 2000.”
Attending this year were Steve DeSimone, who I met in the sixth grade, and my itinerant attorney Tom Gallucio.
Steve is gainfully employed and could only manage a couple of days. Tom wanders the nation with a small camper, so he was underfoot the entire week.
When the cool weather begins and he starts to molt, he knows it’s time to head south. So this was his last hurrah in the Northeast.
The culinary appreciation began when Tom made a 15 pound lasagna. We weighed it to be sure. It lasted all week.
On the cinema front, the big discovery was John Boorman’s 1974 ode to weirdness, “Zardoz.”
Whatever you do, do not Google the words “Zardoz” and “Sean Connery” and then select “images.”
If you do you will see something that cannot be unseen. And because this is a family newspaper, that’s all I have to say on the subject.
The angling was so-so. The Esopus was suffering from turbidity, so we concentrated on tributaries, which were running clear.
What we were hoping for was brown trout ready to put on the nosebag.
What we found were small wild rainbows.
I caught my fish on Leadwing Coachmen wet flies and small, heavy Bread and Butter and Surveyor nymphs.
Here in Connecticut, the stocking trucks have been rolling and a trip to the Blackberry, Housatonic or Farmington will probably be rewarding.
Sharon ambulance captain carries on family tradition of service
Ruth Epstein
Thalia MacMillan
SHARON — Whether it’s in her professional work or her community volunteerism, Thalia MacMillan strives to advocate for others. She developed that instinct from her many family members who also have the same calling.
Many in the region know her dad, Stanley MacMillan, who served for decades as a building inspector and fire marshal. Her mother, Grace Kandefer, was a longtime nurse at Sharon Hospital. Both were active volunteer first responders. Her brother Stanley MacMillan, Jr., is a member of the Sharon Fire Department.
MacMillan, who is currently captain of the Sharon ambulance squad, was raised in Sharon, attended Sharon Center and then Oliver Wolcott Technical School with the intent of studying nursing.
“I wanted to help others, but realized not in that way,” she said during an interview Saturday. “I decided to take the social work path.”
After receiving a bachelor’s degree from Mt. St. Mary’s College in Newburgh, she went on to earn a master’s in social work from Fordham University. She then took a position with Lighthouse for the Blind, while also working as a teaching assistant. Later she earned a PhD in social welfare from Fordham.
As a teaching assistant, she found she really enjoyed working with students. That led to her current position as full professor at Empire State University, which is part of the State of New York system. Her courses include human services, addiction, disability and policy. Her teaching is now online and through independent study.
Most of her students are 30 and over who are coming back to school to get a degree. “As one who did that, I get it; I understand where they’re coming from,” she said.
MacMillan’s sense of caring and compassion comes through very clearly when she talks about preparing her students to work with individuals with disabilities, older adults, housing communities, those living in housing projects and people suffering from addiction.
For someone who loves to have fun and display a quirky sense of humor, MacMillan takes on a serious tone when talking about her students. “Things have gotten worse in the past few years. They are seeing some horrible things.”
She is also the author of several books dealing with topics related to her profession, including “An Introduction to Psychoactive Drugs and Medication,” “The ABCs of CPL: A Guide to Credit for Prior Learning” and “New Directions in Treatment, Education, and Outreach for Mental Health and Addiction.”
While working in New York, she met her husband, Andy Tam. They made the decision to move to Sharon in 2009. Both continued to commute to New York City before her teaching went online and he has transferred to Danbury, where he’s a purchasing manager.
“I wanted to come back and see what I could do for my community,” she said.
She joined the ambulance corps and when Jamie Casey retired in 2023, she took over the helm. She credits those whom she originally served with, including Casey, Jack Murtagh, David Chase, Betsy Hall and Tom Casey, with sharing their expertise to help her learn what she needed to know. “They gave me a lot of wisdom,” she said.
Speaking about the ambulance corps, she said the pool of volunteers has dwindled since the pandemic, with only about 14 to 15 members now. The hours required for certification and recertification are steep. Similar to other departments, Sharon has had to hire paramedics to cover certain hours. “Financially, it’s a struggle,” she said. “The burdens of the squad weigh heavily on me.”
But she went on to emphasize that the volunteers who are serving are phenomenal. They are very dedicated “and above all else, are very good people.”
One of the group’s big fundraisers is on the horizon for the fifth year, for which MacMillan is now preparing. Luminara, small bags filled with sand and tea-lights, are sold for $10 each. They are marked with names in honor or memory of someone. On Dec. 5 they will be put out all around the Green creating a magical glow to start off the holiday season. Last year a total of 2,200, including donations from a large number of businesses, were sold. Ambulance member Patricia Chamberlain came up with the idea. So far, 900 have been ordered for this year.
The ambulance squad also hosts monthly pancake breakfasts from March to September, In addition to raising some money, she likes that they bring the community together in an informal way.
For relaxation, MacMillan and Tam enjoy attending Comic-Cons, dressing up in wild costumes that depict some of their favorite characters.
“I love it just as much as kids,” she said. Among her favorites are the witch from “Snow White,” Ursula and “Super Girl.”
She said her favorite is Snow White because their backyard is a haven for stray animals and Snow White loves animals.
She is also a voracious reader, focusing mainly on stories about witches and vampires. “I like light reading; not heavy. My friend calls my favorites ‘fairy porn,’” she said with a laugh.
Sharon plans replacement of West Cornwall Road bridge
Patrick Stachniak
SHARON — The Board of Selectmen and Planning & Zoning Commission have approved new plans to replace the West Cornwall Road bridge over Pine Swamp Brook, just south of the historic covered bridge over the Housatonic River in West Cornwall.
The project has been in the works for three years after a survey determined that the structure was nearing the end of its intended life-span. After passing the P&Z commission, the project now only needs approval from four property owners near the site to begin the bidding process.
Demolition and the new bridge will cost an estimated total of $1.5 million, with Sharon responsible for 50%. First Selectman Casey Flanagan is “cautiously optimistic” construction will begin in spring 2027.
“We conducted a bridge assessment of our structures between six and 20 feet in length,” said Flanagan. “This bridge was identified as the top priority because of its poor condition, so that was the first one we started with.”
The approximately 15-foot bridge that crosses Pine Swamp Brook, and the several other bridges along West Cornwall Road can be indistinguishable from the normal road for commuters, according to Flanagan.
Flanagan did not identify any dangers or deficiencies but said the bridge has reached the end of its design life.
Connecticut’s $16 million State Local Bridge Program, administered by the Department of Transportation (CDOT), reimburses municipalities for repairs and replacement for small bridges. Though each town is responsible for the design, bidding and construction process, the state will reimburse 50% of the project’s total cost.
“Whether it’s kids going to school, people heading to work, or traveling to visit friends and family, every community depends on bridges that are safe and built to last,” said Governor Ned Lamont in July.
“This grant program provides significant relief to our towns and cities, helping them tackle costly infrastructure projects they couldn’t take on alone.”
The largest hurdle for both the Board of Selectmen and P&Z Commission was the revelation that four separate private properties intersect at the middle of the extended design’s Western side, which increases its lifespan.However, Flanagan stated that the property owners were cooperative and willing to allow the updated bridge design to stretch roughly 15 feet into their properties. Sharon has sought a permanent easement on the land to allow the new guardrails and road to remain on the properties, as well as enable maintenance and upkeep.
Though the complication increased the approval process timeline, Flanagan feels confident the town can compensate the property owners fairly and estimates Sharon will be able to complete the bidding process over the winter and begin construction in 2027.
The new design will not make substantial changes to the present bridge and will be functional for the next 100 years.
“Everything’s been going well. Hopefully the property owners are still eager and willing to work with us because it’s going to benefit them just as much as anybody else,” Flanagan said. “I’m cautiously optimistic that we’ll be able to negotiate deals with them all and move forward.”
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Salisbury Forum links science, religion and Earth’s future
Patrick L. Sullivan
From left, Sam King, Mary Evelyn Tucker and John Grim discuss how religion and science can be used to address environmental challenges on Oct. 30.
LAKEVILLE — Religious scholars Mary Evelyn Tucker and John Grim and environmentalist, writer and former Hotchkiss teacher Sam King delivered a presentation at The Hotchkiss School Friday, Oct. 30.
Sponsored by the Salisbury Forum, “Change the Story, Change the World: A New Vision for an Ecological Era” explored how religious tradition and modern science can be used together to address environmental and spiritual challenges.
Tucker and Grim are co-directors of the Yale Forum on Religion and Ecology. King is project director for Journey of the Universe and taught environmental humanities at Hotchkiss.
Tucker and Grim were both students of Thomas Berry, a Catholic priest and professor at Fordham University who advocated for humanity to see itself as part of an interdependent community with the Earth, rather than using scientific and technological advances to exploit the planet.
The speakers made frequent references to “Journey of the Universe,” an Emmy Award-winning documentary co-written by Tucker. The film tells the story of the evolution of the universe, the Earth and humans from the Big Bang to the present.
Tucker said Berry was looking “not just for ways of enlightenment but a new way forward.”
“We need a new story that will integrate the discoveries of science” with religious beliefs, she said. “This new story has to be told in many forms.”
Grim said the challenge of “Journey” was how to tell the story of the evolving universe in what was originally a two-hour program, later edited down to one hour for television.
The subject matter was daunting, and the film deals with questions such as “Where did gravity come from?”
Tucker said the response to the film was gratifying and surprising. “China has really picked this up because it works with their traditions.”
Grim said he met a student from Pakistan who wanted to bring the film to that country even though it might be seen as contradicting Islamic teachings.
The student “cracked that nut,” and the film was shown in private and public schools in Pakistan without incident.
King, whose work on “Journey” includes arranging screenings, publishing a newsletter and hosting a podcast, said he taught at Hotchkiss from 2016 to 2019 in interdisciplinary humanities courses that asked students questions such as “Where do we come from?” and “What is a good human society?”
He said he discovered the film at a retreat and knew he had found something.
“I felt like I was meeting my own teachers.”
He started thinking about “a new cosmology with a new science.”
“We stand at a profound cosmic moment. We’re in the sixth mass extinction event, and the first caused by humans.”
The question for King was how to inspire young people to move from a model of human exploitation of nature toward a mutually enhancing relationship with it.
“We need to instill in young people a sense of fulfillment as creatures.”
Tucker said the interest is there. “Young people are very keen on science and cosmology.”
“This generation has gone through cynicism, disempowerment and despair. They’re coming out in a new place of hope and possibility. I’m very excited.”
Backgammon group adds ‘Pizza and Play’ at White Hart
Ruth Epstein
Playing backgammon at the Saturday session at Le Gamin in Sharon are front, Jennifer Dowley and Harding Bancroft. Behind them are Michael Lonergan and David Dabill.
Like pickleball enthusiasts who just can’t get enough of the game, those who love backgammon are eager to play as often as possible.
With interest growing, Backgammon of Northwest Connecticut has added a third location for its weekly gatherings.
Besides offering instruction and play at the Hotchkiss Library at 2 p.m. Wednesdays and competitive play at Le Gamin Cafe at 9 a.m. Saturdays, the group now gathers in the White Hart Inn’s library in Salisbury at 5 p.m. Wednesdays, where players can purchase pizza made in the outdoor oven.
What began as a handful of players has grown to a mailing list of 70 people, most of whom live within 30 miles of Sharon. They come from Cornwall, Litchfield, Torrington and Kent, with some traveling regularly from New York and Boston.
Several members teach the game at the Hotchkiss Library at no charge. Beginners and intermediate players are welcome. There are no membership requirements or dues.
On Saturday mornings, players are paired with others of similar proficiency. On Wednesdays at the Hotchkiss Library, the emphasis is on teaching, using a lesson plan composed of 14 components.
“Backgammon combines the strategy of chess, the luck of poker and the randomness of dice to create a unique experience for both the novice and the seasoned player,” said group founder Roger Lourie. “The use of the doubling cube takes the players to a whole new dimension of competitiveness. The use of the cube marks a player’s graduation from social play to competition; from novice to the first steps of expertise.”
Lourie, who introduces players to one another, said competitive play is also about enjoying one another’s company. He aims to match players of similar skill.
Ed Corey, director of membership services for the U.S. Backgammon Federation, provides informal instruction. Advanced beginners and intermediate players also play backgammon chouettes, a format in which a team strategizes together to defeat a single player known as “the box.”
During most sessions, players can purchase food to enjoy while they play.
The new location at the White Hart gives players another opportunity to gather with the four-year-old group.
David Dabill of Falls Village, the organizer of the “Pizza and Play” sessions, said, “This is a way for people to connect on an individual basis. Winters are long here and the White Hart is a community center for many activities. Long winters and dark days give us a chance to connect, dine and compete.”
Salisbury students bring spooky stories to The Moviehouse screen
Patrick L. Sullivan
Salisbury Central School students celebrated the screening of two films they created through the SOAR after-school program at The Moviehouse in Millerton Sunday, Oct. 25.
MILLERTON — SOAR, the after-school enrichment program at Salisbury Central School, presented two films made by SCS students at The Moviehouse in Millerton Sunday, Oct. 25.
Jeremy Boviard, the manager of the theater, and Tom Cloutier, the assistant manager, were the advisors to the students.
Boviard said the film classes took about seven weeks. Itwas the fourth year he has worked with SOAR on student films.
The students decided on all the important aspectsof production such as scripts and treatments, which takes to use, costumes and special effects, and casting.
“This is all student-led,” he emphasized.
The title of the first film, “Blood on the Mirror,” elicited a couple of nervous chuckles from the audience.
“Should I be nervous?” one woman asked a youngster, who replied with a vehement “Nah!”
In brief, a new student named Kyle comes to school, and suddenly kids start to die in horrible ways.
This involved special effects, most prominently dummies.
The entire film is played, very well, for laughs.
The second film, “The Last Episode,” is structured as a reality/found footage show that goes awry.
A TV crew is investigating why a school has been closed for two weeks with no explanation. Finding an open door, the team explores the school, noting that it appears everyone left in a hurry without taking their belongings.
Then, in the background, a strange figure appears briefly, and disappears into the empty teachers’ lounge.
The intrepid reporter follows, the door slams shut, and all sorts of supernatural weirdness ensues.
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