It’s been one heck of a two weeks. One would think the world was coming to an end, given the way global markets have behaved. You may not be able to make much sense of why markets sold off so quickly, but out of the carnage we may be able to predict what comes next. Here’s why.Stock market free falls, such as the one we are presently experiencing, are called waterfall declines, which are sudden drops of 20 percent or more compressed into a few short weeks or days. They are fairly rare events and most follow a roughly similar pattern consisting of three phases. The first phase is the decline itself followed by a sharp bounce higher. We may be experiencing that bounce right now. Following the bounce (and possible retest of the lows), the market should drift into a basing period that could last for one to three months. During that time the market could move up and down in a sideways pattern similar to what we experienced in May through June of this year. Finally, in the last phase there is a rally lasting six to 12 months that could move the markets higher by about 25 percent.In reviewing 10 waterfall declines from 1929 thorough 2002, three months after the post-waterfall low, the stock market was higher in all 10 cases. Six months later, the market was higher in nine of the 10 cases with the average gain at 17 percent. A year later the market was higher in nine out of 10 cases with the average gain equal to 24 percent. The financial crisis of 2008-09 was in a league all by itself. The market, three months after the low of March 2009, was up 37 percent.If we drill down even further, say to the next two weeks, one can expect a relief rally of as much as 10 percent. Then, if the pattern holds, we should retest the bottom. In this case, if we have truly found a bottom for the S&P 500 Index at around 1,100, we should bounce again from there.“So what happens if we break down through that 1,100 level?” asked a nervous client from Manhattan.The short answer is 1,100 wasn’t the bottom and we go lower, by as much as 10 percent, to S&P 1,000.Waterfall declines are often recession related. There have been exceptions to that rule. For example, in 1987 the market fell sharply for two days only to spring back. The dot-com boom and bust of 2002 was another waterfall decline that did not usher in a recession.So what is the best way to navigate through a waterfall decline and its aftermath? It is obvious that one should ride out the turbulence; at least for the next few months. If we are truly entering into a recession, the economic data will confirm that fear or dispel it. If we are going into a double-dip, then I advise you to get defensive: bonds, dividend-paying stocks, etc. But it may turn out that the market was simply correcting, as it does periodically after a long and profitable run. Remember, the S&P 500 Index was up over 80 percent in over two years, so a 20 percent pullback doesn’t look as serious from that perspective. Bill Schmick is registered as an investment advisor representative with Berkshire Money Management. Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own. None of the information presented here should be construed as an endorsement of BMM or a solicitation to become a client of BMM. Direct inquires to Bill at 888-232-6072 or email him at Bill@afewdollarsmore.com.
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Textile designer Justine Valla sits in her father’s chair, which she painted, alongside her husband, illustrator and muralist Victor Valla, in their Atelier Valla studio.
L. Tomaino
“I was always drawing as a child,” Justine recalled. Victor dreamed of illustrating magazine covers like those of the “Saturday Evening Post.”
Victor studied design and illustration at Rochester Institute of Technology, then received a fellowship to study painting and printmaking at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaigne. He graduated in 1967. The following year, he received a grant from the Tiffany Foundation to study printmaking in Paris at Atelier 17, an experimental graphic arts workshop founded in 1927.
“What a great experience that was!” he recalled.
Returning home after the Paris uprisings of 1968, he discovered that the magazine covers he’d hoped to paint had largely given way to photography. His agent suggested trying record covers, which he pursued along with illustration and graphic design.
He also began teaching at Kean University in New Jersey.
“Kean had a wonderful graphic design and illustration department. I loved teaching Graphic Design, even though I never thought I would.”
He later taught at Syracuse University and Pennsylvania College of Art and Design.
In the late 1980s, he decided to stop teaching and concentrate on his own art. He moved to Falls Village, to a house on the corner of Minor and Prospect Streets.
“I used to call the studio ‘Minor Prospects Atelier,’” he said.
He continued working in illustration and graphic design, creating book covers for stories by H.P. Lovecraft and other authors, along with magazine covers, logos, advertising and murals.
Justine and Victor Valla in their studio with a painting of Victor’s,”Jonah and the Whale.” Robin Roraback
His local commissions include the green and gold Noble Horizons signage and wall murals for the Stockbridge Inn, the Spa at Norwich Inn, Orchards Hotel in Williamstown and the David M. Hunt Library’s children’s section.
Justine grew up in the Bronx and studied at the Fashion Institute of Technology. After graduating, she took on whatever work she could find, including designing toys and novelty items for Russ Berrie. But her true calling was textile design.
She moved to Los Angeles to pursue that calling, where she learned silkscreen printing from 1960s design icon Corita Kent.
“I was in her program at Immaculate Heart College. All fabric design at that time was silk screen. My first job in textile design was in L.A., creating wallpaper for Bob Mitchell Design.”
Justine returned to New York City, where the advent of computers required her to learn new design techniques. She enrolled at Parsons School of Design, studying Photoshop, Illustrator, Lectra U4ia and Kaledo.
Around this time, she met Victor online and moved to Falls Village.
A recruiter found her a job in Arkansas at Dillard’s, a department store chain operating in 30 states and known for its exclusive designer collections.
“They had the best equipment I’d ever seen,” she said.
She became a senior computer-aided design designer there, designing fabric and preparing purchased designs for production.
The Vallas left Falls Village for Little Rock.
“It was a big move,” she said. “It was a different culture, but Little Rock was very progressive.”
The originally planned to stay in Arkansas for five years but ended up remaining for nearly 10.
Then Justine was hit by a car. She suffered injuries to her leg and head and required four years of rehabilitation.
“I lost the ability to paint after the accident. I struggled to paint again.”
The Vallas returned to Connecticut, this time settling in Salisbury, where they’ve lived since 2013.
After leaving Dillard’s, Justine had planned to sell her work through Printsource in New York City, an international showcase for surface and textile design. But after the accident, she no longer had the mobility or energy to travel back and forth to the city.
Instead, she began selling her work locally at craft shows, including clothing, hand-printed tea towels and floorcloths.
She is currently working on selling her collection of textile designs.
In December, Justine will have a show of her tea-themed watercolors at the NorthEast-Millerton Library.
Victor recently exhibited “The American West: A Pictural History” at the NorthEast-Millerton Library. The series, created in the early 1990s, was part of a commission from the Postal Commemorative Society for which he completed 100 paintings in two years.
He hopes to place the series in a museum and has created books from its images, complete with text. Over the years, he has designed many other books that are ready for publication, including “Looking In, Looking Out,” a cosmic view of the universe.
Reflecting on his career, Victor said, “It’s about doing what you love”.
Justine agreed.
To see, purchase or commission work, contact Justine at justinevalla@gmail.com or Victor at victorvalla@comcast.net, or call 860-596-4282.
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Jane Herold’s beautifully simple dinnerware.
Provided
Cornwall ceramicist Jane Herold explained that there’s quite a lot of enthusiasm for Clay Way among the region’s ceramic artists.
“We all need work space, which is hard to find or afford in urban areas. The wood-fire crowd needs lots of wood and outdoor space. This area is great because it’s rural enough for us, but has a wonderfully enthusiastic and supportive population of pottery [patrons].”
While many of the artists are returning from previous years, the loose collection of unofficial organizers likes to keep the event manageable for the public, limiting the number of artists and studios each year. A direct drive from the southernmost point at Ann Heywood’s studio in Wingdale to Herold’s big barn in Cornwall is under 40 minutes. But if you want to catch it all, plan for a full day’s worth of art exploration along some of the most beautiful roads in New England.
Starting at its northernmost point, Herold’s studio will host Matin Malikzada of Afghanistan, whose polished, modern interpretations of traditional forms are instantly recognizable. They’ll be joined by wood-fired ceramicists Steve Johnson, with his raw, organic forms, and Harry Levenstein, whose works relate closely to Johnson’s while making even more direct references to nature.
Herold herself creates work that is both beautiful and utilitarian. Her prolific output of objects is intended to be used by everyday people as part of their daily lives.
Moving south is Todd Piker of Cornwall Bridge Pottery. Piker has been making pots in his giant wood-fired kiln since 1971. The kiln looks more like an ancient blast furnace than something designed to transform clay into ceramics, but over the years, he’s mastered its intricacies and produces an impressive amount of fine work.
A ceramic vase by Kathleen Heidemann.Provided
Piker will host Sanah Peterson, who works at Cornwall Bridge Pottery and draws inspiration from both her time with Piker and her time traveling the globe as a child. They’ll be joined by Stephanie Haines, whose vibrant, eye-catching work features underglaze illustrations of birds, fruit and the bounty of nature.
Further along in Warren, Jessica Dubin’s pieces will be on display at the studio of Christine Owen. Both artists seem to appreciate the chaos and unpredictable nature of clay but find ways to refine it all using their own unique methods.
Heading east to Washington, Conn., Will Talbot’s creates intricate work while allowing for the unpredictable nature of clay to play a role. His studio will house Tom Knox and his wide variety of textures and forms, as well as New York City-based Alex Lebedev, who lets music and the nature of improvisation guide his work.
There will be two studios participating in South Kent. Alison Palmner, whose page on the Clay Way website states she “strives to achieve a lighthearted meld of human forms, animals and the vessel.” Her studio will host Ben Eberle, who trained under the guidance of legendary potter Toshiko Takaezu; James Guggina, whose intricate work can appear both deliberate and whimsical; and Paula Shalan, who blends rough, unrefined surfaces with polished precision in individual pieces.
Joy Brown’s delightful ceramic sculptures.Provided
Nearby is Joy Brown, whose work have become a staple of the area, with her figurative sculptures dotting the Northwest Corner. Brown’s studio will also feature Bonnie Levine, who taps into the beauty of chaos and destruction in her work, and Brendan Moore, whose more utilitarian forms are perfect for everyday use.
Finally, the tour crosses the border into Wingdale, New York, where the studios of Drew Montgomery, Ann Heywood and Amy Brenner will host Jackie Sedlock, Lynn Behrendt,and Kathleen Heidemann.
Brenner creates some of the most colorful and vibrant pieces on the tour, while Behrendt’s work is among the most studied and precise. Heywood creates carefully considered, intuitive forms, while Heidemann moves from simple minimalism to intricate textures. Montgomery and Sedlock both find new ways of playing with traditional forms, producing delightfully distinctive pieces.
To learn more about the artists and download a map of participating studios, visit clayway.net
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