Thank you!
Your support is sustaining the future of local news in our communities.

An accurate forecast: The weather is always hyped

To tell if so-called experts are hoping you won’t notice they have no clue what they’re talking about, all you need to do is ask one question: Is this what was promised or are they simply talking?All over the radio and television — and even the Internet — we are being fed a steady stream of weather, 99 percent of which is news about weather that has already been, not what is about to come.The evening news comes on to tell us that it was “55 degrees today” — not the forecast. Or you will hear over the radio, “It’s raining” — not a forecast. Or they will recap the terrible storms that hit the country yesterday — not a forecast.When it comes to the weather, we all want to know what’s coming, not what has been. “Today hit a record high” — not a forecast. “The wettest winter on record” — not a forecast. “Compared to last year”— not a forecast. “Schools are closed today because of snow” — not a forecast. Come on weathermen and women, stick to forecasting the weather.Part of the problem is that the expensive systems we put in place to help predict the weather erased the backbone of the data collection that great meteorologists relied upon. When they put up satellites that he helped design, Len Snellman — then head of most of the National Weather Service (NWS) — told Congress that the idea was to augment our data collection centers, not replace them. Congress instead cut all the small weather stations across the country. Schools, post offices, public buildings — these all had weather stations feeding data to a more accurate mapping of impending weather.Satellites were supposed to provide coverage for those regions where there was scant coverage, as well as provide an overview. Television networks quickly realized they could show pretty satellite pictures and sell more cornflakes, all dressed up as weather forecasting. But every image they put on the screen is past weather or at best current weather. Not one image from space can show you tomorrow’s weather.In an effort to look more professional, the weather presenters were also given Doppler radar images to amuse the viewer. Doppler is absolutely current and not one teeny tiny bit into the future. Asked at Daytona for a weather forecast to see if the Daytona 500 could be run Sunday, the expert looked at the Doppler radar image and said, “It looks like it’s raining.” Open the window and you can get that report.Len once received a teletype of a prognosis chart for the next day’s weather from the NWS headquarters during the Voyager flight 25 years ago. I watched him rub his hand across the barometric lines, shaking his head, “Mother Nature wouldn’t do that.” He called the head of the NWS, Rich Wagner, and asked for all the tiny data points. Rich assured him that the computer couldn’t have missed anything.Rich knew Len was hardly ever wrong, so across the fax machine came all these data figures, pages of them. Len set to work with his pencil, human brain, a clean sheet of paper and decades of experience, and voila! A data point (Bakersfield) had been missed. Put that on the map and the low-pressure area moved 25 miles.Those data points Len was using no longer exist, since no one is collecting them. We’re doomed to weather forecasting across huge areas of land as all the in-between stations are gone. North American weather forecasting sounds like this: There’s a storm brewing out west and there will be rain on the East Coast. Not really useful, and the media knows it. So they spend 90 percent of their weather time telling you how hot or cold, wet or dry, windy or calm it was today.As Len would say, “Any fool can tell you what the weather has been.”Peter Riva, a former resident of Amenia Union, now lives in New Mexico.

Latest News

Cornwall Historical Society celebrates Connecticut’s Black patriots

On Saturday, Oct. 24, at the Cornwall Historical Society, author and genealogist John Mills will breathe new life into the stories of some of Connecticut’s more underappreciated patriots. The reason these heroes were forgotten? They were Black.

At a time when white colonists were fighting for their own liberty and political independence, many Black men who fought alongside them remained enslaved. Some risked their lives only to return to bondage. Though enslaved people were promised freedom from both sides of the Revolutionary War in exchange for their service, Great Britain, too, was still deeply dependent on slavery. For Black people in America, the war presented both extraordinary risks and uncertain paths to the freedom that white colonists were demanding for themselves.

Keep ReadingShow less

A sanctuary for second chances

A sanctuary for second chances

Stephanie Saetta runs Charlie Chicken Bones, a sanctuary in Salisbury.

Madi Long
You only get one or two of these soul connection dogs, so I do this in his honor.
— Stephanie Saetta

Stephanie Saetta has spent much of her life caring for others. A physician at White Plains Hospital, she has another calling at home in Salisbury — one that has four legs and a wagging tail. She runs Charlie Chicken Bone Sanctuary, a nonprofit dog rescue that brings dogs from overcrowded pounds and the streets of Texas to foster homes in northwestern Connecticut, where they can begin again.

The sanctuary is named for Charlie, the dog who taught her how special a bond between a person and rescue animal can be.

Keep ReadingShow less
Big ideas come to Lenox for inaugural field festival

Hunter Runnette, founder and board chair of field, has spent years fostering arts and cultural programming in the Berkshires.

Provided

What do joy, gardening, artificial intelligence, the American experiment and the creative process have in common? Quite a lot, as it turns out, at least when some of the world’s most compelling thinkers get together to talk about them.

From Friday, Oct. 23, through Sunday, Oct. 25, Lenox, Massachusetts, will host the inaugural field festival, a three-day gathering of writers, artists, scholars and cultural figures at Shakespeare & Company. Billed as a festival of ideas, entertainment, learning and discovery, field brings together an impressive roster of voices to explore everything from the deeply personal to the profoundly political.

Keep ReadingShow less
google preferred source

Want more of our stories on Google? Click here to make us a Preferred Source.

The Pink House AM is serving up community

Mare Rubin and Maggie Levine of the Pink House AM.

Madi Long

It all started with a yoga class. Mare Rubin was working on her second act after leaving the Upper West Side, where she’d raised a family and worked in corporate marketing. Newly empty nesters, she and her husband decided to move to the wilds of northwestern Connecticut, where they had spent 15 years as weekenders, to see what life in the woods had in store for them.

Rubin started teaching yoga classes at the Union in West Cornwall, a space designated by the town of Cornwall as a community hub with couches, Wi-Fi, occasional events and a growing yoga class schedule. She was adjusting well but missed one important thing about city life: a casual coffee shop.

Keep ReadingShow less
Sons of Astro are musicians, friends and bandmates — in that order

The Sons of Astro will be at the Common Pub in Housatonic on Oct. 24 and the 2nd Home Lounge in Winsted on Nov. 14.

Provided

No matter where they are in the world, musicians seem to find other musicians. There’s a shared language, a shared experience of being on stage and performing, and a shared enthusiasm for making those melodies by themselves or together. Such is the case with Norfolk and Brooklyn-based cosmic Americana band Sons of Astro.

That magnetic musicians’ bond drew Brooklyn-based singer-songwriter and multi-instrumentalist Mike Cobb into the orbit of singer-songwriter and multi-instrumentalist Matt Statler. The two neighbors took to each other right away and were soon playing open mics together. As an ethics professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business, Statler made the case that if he sat in for Cobb’s set and Cobb sat in for Statler’s, they could play together and double their stage time. Clearly, these men wanted to make as much music as possible. That became a little harder when Cobb and his family moved up to Norfolk, Connecticut.

Keep ReadingShow less
One more weekend to get inside the art at ArtEast

The participating artists in this year’s ArtEast open studios.

Provided

ArtEast’s annual October Open Studio Tour is already underway, but there’s still one more weekend to step inside the creative worlds of artists working throughout eastern Dutchess County. On Saturday and Sunday, Oct. 24 and 25, artists will once again open their studio doors, inviting visitors to see where the work happens, meet the people who make it and perhaps discover something worth taking home.

Now in its 21st year, the ArtEast October Open Studio Tour offers a self-guided journey with participating studios in Holmes, LaGrangeville, Hopewell Junction, Pawling, Patterson, Poughquag and Wingdale. Visitors can explore painting, photography, sculpture, mixed media and other artistic practices, and get some leaf-peeping in at the same time.

Keep ReadingShow less
google preferred source

Want more of our stories on Google? Click here to make us a Preferred Source.

google preferred source

Want more of our stories on Google? Click here to make us a Preferred Source.