Thank you!
Your support is sustaining the future of local news in our communities.

Markets choppy on good news

It was a classic case of ‘buy the rumor, sell the news.’ Even though the Fed did cut interest rates again and a deal between China and the U.S. was announced, investors failed to celebrate.

Markets were bid up in anticipation of these events long before they happened. A Fed cut has been in the works for approximately a month. Expectations that the two largest economies in the world would reach a satisfactory arrangement were also well telegraphed as early as last week. On Sunday, Scott Bessent, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, all but said the deal is in the bag.

However, investors did not get all they wanted in either case. Markets had already priced in another rate cut in December with an 87% probability. And then came the comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell in the Q&A session after the FOMC meeting. “A further reduction in the policy rate at our December meeting is not a foregone conclusion—far from it. Policy is not on a preset course.”

Oops, said the markets. By the close on Wednesday, the chance of a cut dropped to roughly 60% and markets opened lower on Thursday as a result. It also didn’t help that two of the largest tech stocks in the universe, Microsoft and Meta, disappointed investors, causing a loss of over 1% in the NASDAQ.

And then there was the deal between Presidents Trump and Xi on Thursday. The two leaders agreed to roll back a bunch of trade barriers that had never been implemented. These tit-for-tat, double-dare threats between the two nations ultimately proved to be just that. The sweeping controls on rare-earth magnets and draconian restrictions on Chinese companies disappeared like hot air, at least for the next year. However, there was some good news for soybean farmers (including Scott Bessent) as China will resume purchases.

The administration and the media hailed the latest truce as groundbreaking, but I don’t see it. No agreements were committed to paper, so there is no legal binding on anything. Their fundamental differences over Taiwan, technological supremacy, and national security were not even mentioned.

To me, this so-called framework allows both leaders a win. Beijing gets to continue stringing things along, buying itself even more time to mitigate any potential downside of U.S. actions against it. Evidently, the markets agreed, as both Chinese and American stocks fell after the announcements.

The shutdown continues. Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits cease at the end of Friday, impacting one out of eight Americans. Saturday marks the start of the open enrollment period for healthcare programs under the Affordable Care Act. Look for numerous stories next week about the higher premiums for insurance that many of the 24.3 million on the ACA will need to pay.

The president, suddenly appearing concerned over the shutdown, posted that it is time to eliminate the Senate filibuster, stating, “The choice is clear—initiate the nuclear option.” There has been a slight thawing of the congressional ice jam, but make no mistake, it is not about those issues.

The facts are, as I have said in the past, November marks a period leading up to Thanksgiving when air traffic increases. Air traffic controllers have not been paid. Newark already shut down for a day this week due to a lack of personnel in the tower. This is one area of the government shutdown that could generate significant blowback, as thousands of inconvenienced travelers are suddenly confronted with flight delays.

Fortunately for the markets, the earnings of Apple and Amazon beat expectations after the close on Thursday. That reversed the damage, and the markets recouped nearly all their losses only to drop gain. Strong third-quarter earnings are supporting the markets. With more than 60% of companies reported thus far, over 84% have beaten estimates by a wide margin.

Entering November, markets continue higher. The only difference that I can see is that the gains have slowed, and markets are alternating between some down and some up days. The same drivers, AI and tech, continue to lead, with a few other sectors alternating between gains and losses.

Precious metals have slowed their free-fall and are now consolidating. I suspect they could still see lower prices, so be careful. Cryptocurrencies are doing the same. Overall, I advise readers not to chase here but only add on dips like we had on Thursday (1% or more in the averages).

Bill Schmick is a founding partner of Onota Partners, Inc., in the Berkshires.Bill’s forecasts and opinions are purely his own and do not necessarily represent the views of Onota Partners, Inc. (OPI).

The views expressed here are not necessarily those of The Lakeville Journal and The Journal does not support or oppose candidates for public office.

Latest News

Maga School

Maga School
Maga School
Maga School

Let's Hear It - July 30, 2026

Let's Hear It - July 30, 2026

This Week

Some of the best places in our community aren’t the ones you’ll find on a map —they’re the quiet trails, family-owned businesses, scenic overlooks, and local favorites that residents know and love. This week, we want to celebrate the hidden gems that make our corner of the world unique.

Keep ReadingShow less

Letters to the Editor - July 30, 2026

Letters to the Editor - July 30, 2026

A crisis in affordable housing

In 1968 the world population was 3.5 billion, today it is over 8.3 billion. No wonder affordable housing is a world-wide problem. But in Washington the administration cut 13% of the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

Keep ReadingShow less
google preferred source

Want more of our stories on Google? Click here to make us a Preferred Source.

A place to get rich

A place to get rich

Chris Murphy, one of Connecticut’s two highly respected US Senators, on June 23, 2026, addressed the Senate focusing on the first 500 days of Trump’s “nuclear-grade” graft, corruption, and illegalities.

“This moment is exceptional.It’s a one of one moment, and if it becomes normal, if people stop being outraged at what he is doing to enrich himself, then I fear there is no going back. The White House will become a place to get rich.”

Keep ReadingShow less
Comments on Proposed OMB Uniform Grant Regulations

On May 29th the Trump Administration Office of Management and Budget (OMB) published the text of a new Uniform Grants Regulation that will fundamentally change the way federal financial grant applications are reviewed and awarded by over 30 federal agencies. These include the National Science Foundation, which provides grants to cover the research of nearly every graduate student in the physical sciences; the National Institute of Health, which funds much of the nation’s leading edge medical research; the national laboratories such as Los Alamos, which develop advanced technologies which help give the USA its global technological advantage; and agencies such as DARPA, DOE, NOAA, EPA, USGS, and many others,which provide grants for military innovation, environmental, climate, strategic minerals, naturalhazard and other research that is critical to the nation’s health and prosperity.

The proposed OMB rules are justified to “improve oversight of federal grantmaking”, and are designed to strengthen “transparency, accountability and oversight while reducing certain administrative burdens”.All future grant applications and discretionary awards must be reviewed by senior federal agency department heads who are political appointees. This is to ensure that federal awards have clear goals that are aligned with presidential policy and priorities. Peer review by scientific specialty experts no longer applies as the leading determinant in making an award to a grant applicant.The justification for the elimination of peer review is that it will make the grant process “more efficient”.Scientists working on research that is not deemed in “the national interest” need not apply.Any proposals regarding diversity, equity and inclusion, or gender studies will not be eligible for federal grants. The government will no longer cover the expenses of researchers to attend scientific meetings, pay for subscriptions to scientific journals, or pay research paper publication fees.

Keep ReadingShow less
What Donald Trump taught me about democracy

On January 6, 2021, I watched the television in horror and disbelief as a mob of Donald Trump’s supporters, hopped up on his lies about a stolen election, ransacked the Capitol, viciously attacked Capitol police, and forced members of Congress of both parties to hide in fear for their lives. Congress had gathered that day to perform its Constitutionally-mandated duty of certifying Joe Biden as the 46th President of the United States. The attack forced the postponement of the certification.

I grew up understanding that one of the things that made our democracy the envy of the world was our unbroken string of peaceful transfers of power — a string that began with George Washington ceding authority to John Adams in 1797 and going home to Mount Vernon as a private citizen.

Keep ReadingShow less
google preferred source

Want more of our stories on Google? Click here to make us a Preferred Source.

google preferred source

Want more of our stories on Google? Click here to make us a Preferred Source.