Republicans should choose a candidate who can win

The message of the latest Quinnipiac University Poll to Connecticut’s Republicans is this: Unless they can avoid the inconvenience of having independent voters and Democrats voting in November, they should not nominate Linda McMahon for the U.S. Senate again.The poll released last week indicates the lure of McMahon’s millions remains strong among the faithful and if the primary were held today, she would probably be the party’s nominee and go on to lose her second Senate election in two years. In a poll of those Republican primary voters with McMahon against former 10-term Congressman Chris Shays, McMahon leads by nine points. But Shays is stronger than he was in a Quinnipiac poll last fall when he ran 15 points behind McMahon, so his nine-point deficit this time could be a healthy sign. The Big Mo and all that.Of considerably more significance is Shays’ poll performance with all voters against the two contenders for that Democratic Senate nomination. Congressman Chris Murphy, the Democratic front runner, easily defeats McMahon, 52 to 37 percent, but against Shays, he can do no better than a statistical tie, 41 percent to Shays’ 40 percent.Against the less likely Democratic nominee, former Secretary of the State Susan Bysiewicz, the story is virtually the same. Bysiewicz easily defeats McMahon, 49 to 39 percent, but against Shays, the tie returns, with Shays ahead of Bysiewicz by 43 to 42 percent. McMahon’s only advantage last time was her willingness to spend millions of her own money, a virtue Republicans welcomed in past elections when they had to find a candidate willing to run and lose against then invincible Democrats like Chris Dodd.Congressman Rob Simmons, like Shays, a moderate Republican who had actually won elections, had no chance against McMahon’s money in 2010 but it didn’t help her in the general election and she lost to Dick Blumenthal by 10 points.Douglas Schwartz, the director of the Quinnipiac poll, who’s usually pretty good at analyzing his own poll, notes McMahon “is still the one with the lead but Shays is the one with the momentum” as his numbers indicate McMahon would lose the independent vote in a general election against either Murphy or Bysiewicz.In 2010, when McMahon flooded the airwaves with commercials and our mailboxes with expensive throwaways, she at least got herself known, if not loved. Her lowest unfavorable rating, 15 percent, was achieved in the months before she announced her candidacy and grew to 37 percent before the election. It’s now 44 percent.This time, only 15 percent told the poll takers they didn’t know enough about her to have an opinion, but 38 percent said they know too little about Shays, who had only been a Connecticut congressman for 21 years.But the election still comes down to money. As Schwartz noted, if McMahon can define Shays before he can define himself, Shays is in trouble and the only medium for defining a candidate is the dreaded television commercial, lies and all.If the poll numbers hold up, the Republican faithful will probably turn to McMahon again at the summer convention but give Shays enough support to force a primary.Shays told The Danbury News-Times that being neck and neck with the Democratic candidates in a state considered one of the most Democratic in the country is wonderful news and he’s right about that.For those of us who prefer a two-party system, it would be a treat to vote for a senator without knowing the outcome in advance. But for that to happen, Republican voters will have to undergo a reality check.This is the second of two consecutive elections for open seats in the United States Senate, a phenomenon about as rare as a 100-year flood. When someone is elected to the Senate from Connecticut, it may not be for a lifetime, but in the past half century, it’s been for at least a dozen years and in the case of the retiring Dodd and now, Lieberman, considerably longer.A contest in which the Democratic candidate can’t get away with mouthing party line platitudes and the Republican ducked fundamental issues like her views on entitlements, as McMahon did in 2010, would be refreshing. And for Republicans, the prospect of actually winning should count for something.