Santa Claus rally appears to come early to Wall Street

The bullish momentum that has driven equities higher over the last few weeks is beginning to slow down. That does not mean this bull run is over. It is just catching its breath.

The gains registered by stocks have been breathtaking. The S&P 500 Index has won back all its losses since October. It rose more than 8% heading into Thanksgiving.

Normally, this kind of action would have been reserved for the latter part of December during the yearly “Santa Claus Rally,” which occurs from mid-December into January of the following year. The moves higher have been bolstered by a lot of positive news this month.

Both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) came in cooler than expected in October, which was contrary to economists’ expectations. Only 7 of the 31 core components of the CPI registered inflation. The used car and housing components are the most important indicators to me. Those two carry a lot of weight in the index. The downsize inflation surprise supports the bulls’ case that the Fed’ actions to beat down inflation are making headway. But there was more good news as well.

In mid-November, the credit agency, Moody’s Investors Service, lowered its outlook on the U.S. government debt to negative from stable. It cited the cost of rising interest rates and political polarization in Congress. Readers may recall my column of a few weeks ago in which I worried that Moody’s might follow credit agencies, Fitch and Standard and Poor’s in reducing the country’s AAA rating. Fortunately, the agency maintained its rating despite the negative outlook.

While not good news, it was better than many, including myself, had feared. One wonders if Moody’s negative outlook might have helped break the political shutdown logjam in Washington since Nov. 14 saw the surprise passage of another continuing resolution by both the House and the Senate. The strong bipartisan vote averts a government shutdown until next year.

That will hopefully give the politicians time to pass the 12 appropriations bills needed under regular order. This removed yet another concern for investors.

On the macroeconomic front, the weekly jobless claims, another closely watched indicator, rose to a three-month high. U.S. industrial output fell the most in 4 months and U.S. manufacturing declined another 0.7% from a month earlier, which was more than the 0.3% decline expected. While all this data is bad news for the economy, the financial markets liked what they heard. It indicates that the economy is slowing, which should put the Fed on hold as far as future monetary tightening.

 

Bill Schmick is a founding partner of Onota Partners Inc. in the Berkshires. None of his commentary is or should be considered investment advice.  Email him at bill@-schmicksretiredinvestor.com.

The views expressed here are not necessarily those of The Lakeville Journal and The Journal does not support or oppose candidates for public office.

Latest News

Foreign exchange students reflect on a year in the U.S.

Charlie Castellanos, left, and Allegra Ferri, right, sitting in the HVRHS library to talk about their experiences in the U.S.

Anna Gillette
“I would say if you are thinking about doing the program, do it because you get out of your comfort zone and learn so many things...” —Charlie Castellanos

Every year, Housatonic Valley Regional High School welcomes foreign exchange students to attend classes through the AFS Intercultural Programs. This school year, two students traveled to Northwest Connecticut to immerse themselves in American life and culture. Allegra Ferri, a 17-year-old from Italy, and 16-year-old Charlie Castellanos from Colombia sat down to reflect on their experience at HVRHS. As the academic year is coming to an end, they shared a few highlights of their time in the U.S. and offered advice to prospective exchange students.

What has been your favorite part of your exchange experience?

Allegra: “My favorite part of this exchange year was coming here and experiencing an American high school.”

Keep ReadingShow less
HVRHS students bring back student newspaper
From left, Ibby Sadeh, Anna Gillette, Nathan Miller, Maddy Johnson and Caitlin Hanlon proof the pages of HVRHS Today at the Lakeville Journal office while Shanaya Duprey teleconferences in on Thursday, May 29.
James H. Clark

Students from Housatonic Valley Regional High School wrote and produced the inaugural edition of HVRHS Today, a new publication by and for students in the Northwest Corner.

This inaugural issue of HVRHS Today marks the first student-led journalism effort at the high school in several years. The program is a collaboration between the Lakeville Journal, the Berkshire Taconic Community Foundation and the 21st Century Fund.

Keep ReadingShow less
Mountaineers take second place in WCLC

WATERTOWN — Housatonic Valley Regional High School girls lacrosse played Watertown High School for the Western Connecticut Lacrosse Conference championship Wednesday, May 28.

The cold, rainy game went back and forth with three ties and three lead changes. Watertown was ahead when it counted and earned a 6-4 victory to claim the league title.

Keep ReadingShow less