The Big Bang theory has it that about 13.8 billion years ago an explosion marked the beginning of the expansion of the universe. The word we’re fixed on here is “expansion.” The American economy is experiencing an economic expansion, and as long as the expansion continues, investor confidence appears ready to hang on for the ride. Last week we witnessed new milestones as major stock market indexes continue to rise.
The S&P 500, a broad index of of stocks, crosssed over the 5,000 level for the first time ever. The S&P 500 rose for the 14th week out of 15 by last Friday’s close, something that hasn’t happened since Richard Nixon was in the White House in 1972. The Nasdaq Composite, a tech stock barometer, also climbed, continuing a winning streak for the 15th week that it hadn’t seen since 1997. So did the Dow Jones Industrial Average, a basket of 30 stocks. All three indexes ended the week with gains.
Investors have been buoyed by strength in the labor market — a job-growth report showing employers added 353,000 jobs — and by solid corporate earnings.
In Connecticut, the economic picture also remains positive, according to the Connecticut Business and Industry Association. Real GDP grew by 4.7 percent in the state in the third quarter last year, which was slightly below the national average of 4.9 percent but double the rate for all of 2022. In November, Connecticut’s Department of Labor reported job growh for the third month in a row. And in the Hudson Valley, private sector jobs rose to 809,800, an increase of 6,100, over the year that ended in December, according to the New York State Department of Labor. Two of the New York region’s private sectors — health care and social assistance — posted year-over-year growth of at least 5.2 percent, the department reported.
Yet we have another set of data points that don’t relate to any kind of metaphorical Big Bang expansion at all. In an economy hallmarked by steady growth, approximately one in four households in our local region struggles to make ends meet.
According to the Connecticut United Ways, in its 2022 Alice report, an acronym that stands for Asset Limited, Income Constrained, Employed, 25 percent of the households in Northwest Connecticut earn more than the Federal Poverty Level but less than the basic cost of living in the area. The basics include: housing, food, child care, health care, technology and transportation. The United Way in the Dutchess-Orange County Region, reported in 2021 that the same percentage — 25 percent — of households in Dutchess County fell into the Alice category.
There are economic and market reports that set records, reflecting positive growth and aspirations for a continued expansion — with chronic shortcomings in the mix. In 2023 there were 1,111 households on waiting lists for affordable rental housing in the 21 towns that comprise the Northwest Hills Council of Governments. It’s a similar story in Dutchess County, where, according to DATAUSA, 19.5% of the population was living with severe housing problems in 2022. From 2014 to 2022, the percentage expanded by 1.1%.
