Forum examines 21st century baby bust

FALLS VILLAGE — Guest speakers Michael Geruso and Dean Spears opened their talk at the Salisbury Forum on Friday, Dec. 12, by asking audience members whether they thought the planet is overpopulated. Responses were roughly evenly split.

The authors of “After the Spike: Population, Progress and the Case for People” argue that depopulation is not the solution to concerns about overpopulation, and that population stabilization should instead be the goal.

Geruso began by noting that for most of human history, the global population was relatively small. It was not until the 1800s that the population reached 1 billion, and by 1925 it had doubled to 2 billion. Today, the world’s population stands at about 8.2 billion. Even so, he said, birth rates are declining.

“We have heard that overpopulation is a challenge to our future,” said Geruso. “But all projections show that within a few decades the population will peak and then start to decline.”

The birth rate in most developed countries is about 1.5 children per woman. “So we need to look at fertility projections after those decades and see if they’re likely to decline as fast as they’ve risen over the past two centuries resulting in global depopulation,” he said.

Prefacing their remarks throughout the talk that their theories are likely, but not certain, the two, who are both economic demographers and associate professors of economics at the University of Texas at Austin, say long-term depopulation over the century is probable. That would occur if the total fertility rate falls lower than two children per two adults.

Spears said so far there are fewer deaths per year than births, but eventually those numbers will meet. In 2012 there were 146 million births around the world. That is more than any other year since.

“We’re not saying fertility rates are falling; we’re saying they are likely to fall below 2 children per couple and stay there,” said Spears.

Geruso said evidence shows the likelihood of heading into a future with low birth rates. “As long as data has been kept, we’ve seen that as a path for hundreds of years. The baby boom was a blip. The rates went down before and after.”

There is no simple answer as to why fertility rates are low, said Spears. He posed the question as to whether it’s affordability, a decline in religiosity, gender-equal societies? None of those fit the story, he said.

They then brought up the idea that humans cause environmental harm, so wouldn’t it be a benefit to have fewer people emitting carbon into the air? Climate change is important and urgent, but some demographers say waiting six decades to see equalized birth and death rates and thus decarbonization, is way too long, said Spears. Instituting rules and policies is the way to go, he said, pointing out how in India, where he’s done a lot of research, air quality was a huge problem. The birth rate increased, but regulations helped to improve the air.

“We’re advocating stability,” said Spears. “If we want a future, parenting can be a successful option. We need to have more. If people want to have children, they can. Declining population is not going to solve our problems.”

Geruso said, “We’re lucky to live in a time when many others live with us.”

Spears talked about all those who have made our lives richer, longer and better than they were 200 years ago. All advances have come from people who inhabit the earth. We need a future where there are more people and more opportunities. In a depopulated society, you’ll have fewer things you want and need. It’s not a solution to have fewer of us.”