Writer decodes the frontier of weather forecasting

Writer decodes the frontier of weather forecasting

Author Thomas E. Weber, left, was in conversation with John Coston at Scoville Memorial Library Sunday, Sept. 7, to discuss the changing field of meteorology.

Patrick L. Sullivan

SALISBURY— Technological advances make it possible for people to get more information about what’s happening with the weather. It’s up to those individuals what they do with it.

That was one takeaway from a discussion between Thomas E. Weber, author of “Cloud Warriors: Deadly Storms, Climate Chaos—and the Pioneers Creating a Revolution in Weather Forecasting” and his former colleague at The Wall Street Journal (and current editor of The Lakeville Journal) John Coston at the Scoville Memorial Library Sunday, Sept. 7.

Coston asked about the personal safety aspect of weather forecasting.

Weber said when he started the book he expected to get a lot of material about computer models.

But he soon met a social scientist from the University of Oklahoma who was interested in why people keep getting killed in natural disasters when the warnings keep getting better.

“It’s about how people process warnings,” Weber said, noting that the library talk was originally scheduled in August but postponed because of flash flood warnings.

Weber, who lives in New York City but was at his second home in Columbia County, New York, said that on Saturday, Sept. 6, he started getting ominous weather reports, including a tornado warning.

“Here we go again,” he said. “Every time I go near this library…”

Coston asked about advances in forecasting, with time frames expanded from a few days to a few years.

“We are getting much better information,” Weber replied, with longer time scales that make it possible to advise about the possibility of drought, for instance.

“We’re starting to see that information change lives, especially in developing countries.” Better information allows for relief supplies to be brought into affected areas in advance, not after the “bad thing” happens.

Closer to home, Weber was enthusiastic about his home weather station, a device called a Tempest.

“It’s not the fancy one,” he added.

But it’s advanced enough to detect lighting when it is still 30 miles away.

So on Saturday, Sept. 6, he was at his Columbia County home watching the storm getting closer, until he could see it with his eyes.

“It gives us a little extra awareness.”

Such devices are also connected to the internet, and data from them is added to the overall flow of information. “All of this local data feeds into forecasting.”

He also advised buying a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration radio, which is not dependent on the internet at all and provides constant updates and warnings from the national Weather Service.

Weber said that the danger of unusual or extreme heat needs to be more widely understood.

“A day or two of unusually high temperatures causes tremendous stress on the human body,” he said.

People who take common medications for conditions such as high blood pressure should be aware of the dangers of heat and dehydration.

He said the common measures of heat — the projected daily high temperature and the “heat index” — are now joined by measurements taken with a device called a wet bulb globe thermometer, which factors in not just temperature and humidity but the effect of direct sunlight.

He said that school administrators are starting to set limits on high school sports practices, for example, using the wet bulb globe thermometer readings.

Weber spent considerable time discussing “optimism bias,” which gets back to the question of how people react to warnings.

He said people often get used to emergency sirens, with a common observation being “that thing goes off all the time and nothing bad happens.”

“A siren is a pretty blunt instrument,” he said. The siren covers a large area and doesn’t offer any information other than there is a potential problem.

But there is more information about weather conditions than ever — and more ways to get it.

Weber said he was introduced to a phone app called “Radarscope” by stormchasers, who swore by it.

“Never have we had more direct access to information.”

Latest News

Jacob assumes leadership role at William Pitt Sotheby’s Litchfield Hills offices

Eddie Jacob was recently promoted to Assistant Brokerage Manager for four Litchfield Hills offices of William Pitt Sotheby’s International Realty.

Photo provided

William Pitt Sotheby’s International Realty has appointed Eddie Jacob as Assistant Brokerage Manager for its four Litchfield Hills offices, the company announced on Nov. 19.

In his new role, Jacob will support agents and help oversee operations in the firm’s Kent, Litchfield, Salisbury and Washington Depot brokerages.

Keep ReadingShow less
Winter sports season approaches at HVRHS

Mohawk Mountain was making snow the first week of December. The slopes host practices and meets for the HVRHS ski team.

By Riley Klein

FALLS VILLAGE — After concluding a successful autumn of athletics, Housatonic Valley Regional High School is set to field teams in five sports this winter.

Basketball

Keep ReadingShow less
Bears headline DEEP forum in Sharon; attendees call for coexistence, not hunting

A mother bear and her cubs move through a backyard in northwest Connecticut, where residents told DEEP that bear litters are now appearing more frequently.

By James H. Clark

SHARON — About 40 people filled the Sharon Audubon Center on Wednesday, Dec. 3, to discuss black bears — and most attendees made clear that they welcome the animals’ presence. Even as they traded practical advice on how to keep bears out of garages, porches and trash cans, residents repeatedly emphasized that they want the bears to stay and that the real problem lies with people, not wildlife.

The Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental Protection (DEEP) convened the meeting as the first in a series of regional Bear Management Listening Sessions, held at a time when Connecticut is increasingly divided over whether the state should authorize a limited bear hunt. Anticipating the potential for heated exchanges, DEEP opened the evening with strict ground rules designed to prevent confrontations: speakers were limited to three minutes, directed to address only the panel of DEEP officials, and warned that interruptions or personal attacks would not be tolerated.

Keep ReadingShow less
Kent unveils two new 'smart bins' to boost composting efforts

Rick Osborne, manager of the Kent Transfer Station, deposits the first bag of food scraps into a new organics “smart bin.” HRRA Executive Director Jennifer Heaton-Jones stands at right, with Transfer Station staff member Rob Hayes at left.

By Ruth Epstein

KENT — Residents now have access to around-the-clock food-scrap composting thanks to two newly installed organics “smart bins,” unveiled during a ribbon-cutting ceremony Monday morning, Dec. 1.

Rick Osborne, manager of the Kent Transfer Station, placed the first bag of food scraps into the smart bin located at 3 Railroad St. A second bin has been installed outside the Transfer Station gate, allowing 24/7 public access even when the facility is closed.

Keep ReadingShow less