Thank you!
Your support is sustaining the future of local news in our communities.

Writer decodes the frontier of weather forecasting

Writer decodes the frontier of weather forecasting

Author Thomas E. Weber, left, was in conversation with John Coston at Scoville Memorial Library Sunday, Sept. 7, to discuss the changing field of meteorology.

Patrick L. Sullivan

SALISBURY— Technological advances make it possible for people to get more information about what’s happening with the weather. It’s up to those individuals what they do with it.

That was one takeaway from a discussion between Thomas E. Weber, author of “Cloud Warriors: Deadly Storms, Climate Chaos—and the Pioneers Creating a Revolution in Weather Forecasting” and his former colleague at The Wall Street Journal (and current editor of The Lakeville Journal) John Coston at the Scoville Memorial Library Sunday, Sept. 7.

Coston asked about the personal safety aspect of weather forecasting.

Weber said when he started the book he expected to get a lot of material about computer models.

But he soon met a social scientist from the University of Oklahoma who was interested in why people keep getting killed in natural disasters when the warnings keep getting better.

“It’s about how people process warnings,” Weber said, noting that the library talk was originally scheduled in August but postponed because of flash flood warnings.

Weber, who lives in New York City but was at his second home in Columbia County, New York, said that on Saturday, Sept. 6, he started getting ominous weather reports, including a tornado warning.

“Here we go again,” he said. “Every time I go near this library…”

Coston asked about advances in forecasting, with time frames expanded from a few days to a few years.

“We are getting much better information,” Weber replied, with longer time scales that make it possible to advise about the possibility of drought, for instance.

“We’re starting to see that information change lives, especially in developing countries.” Better information allows for relief supplies to be brought into affected areas in advance, not after the “bad thing” happens.

Closer to home, Weber was enthusiastic about his home weather station, a device called a Tempest.

“It’s not the fancy one,” he added.

But it’s advanced enough to detect lighting when it is still 30 miles away.

So on Saturday, Sept. 6, he was at his Columbia County home watching the storm getting closer, until he could see it with his eyes.

“It gives us a little extra awareness.”

Such devices are also connected to the internet, and data from them is added to the overall flow of information. “All of this local data feeds into forecasting.”

He also advised buying a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration radio, which is not dependent on the internet at all and provides constant updates and warnings from the national Weather Service.

Weber said that the danger of unusual or extreme heat needs to be more widely understood.

“A day or two of unusually high temperatures causes tremendous stress on the human body,” he said.

People who take common medications for conditions such as high blood pressure should be aware of the dangers of heat and dehydration.

He said the common measures of heat — the projected daily high temperature and the “heat index” — are now joined by measurements taken with a device called a wet bulb globe thermometer, which factors in not just temperature and humidity but the effect of direct sunlight.

He said that school administrators are starting to set limits on high school sports practices, for example, using the wet bulb globe thermometer readings.

Weber spent considerable time discussing “optimism bias,” which gets back to the question of how people react to warnings.

He said people often get used to emergency sirens, with a common observation being “that thing goes off all the time and nothing bad happens.”

“A siren is a pretty blunt instrument,” he said. The siren covers a large area and doesn’t offer any information other than there is a potential problem.

But there is more information about weather conditions than ever — and more ways to get it.

Weber said he was introduced to a phone app called “Radarscope” by stormchasers, who swore by it.

“Never have we had more direct access to information.”

Latest News

“The Divine Sister” comes to Sharon Playhouse for one-night benefit
Playwright and performer Charles Busch is “The Divine Sister.”
Provided

Continuing a popular tradition, the Sharon Playhouse will present a one-performance-only staged reading of “The Divine Sister,” another riotous comic romp by the acclaimed playwright and performer Charles Busch, on Friday, Aug. 28 at 7 p.m.

The play is a wild and witty homage to Hollywood films that feature nuns — from “The Song of Bernadette” and “The Bells of St. Mary’s” to “The Singing Nun” and “The Sound of Music.” It is classic Charles Busch: wickedly funny, gloriously over-the-top and overflowing with theatrical joy.

Keep ReadingShow less

KK Kozik sees things differently

KK Kozik sees things differently

KK Kozik in her studio

Natalia Zukerman
Maybe it takes the ability to interpret what you’re looking at to really see.
— KK Kozik

KK Kozik has a theory about getting older.

“I don’t think you have eyes to see until you have eyes to see,” said the painter. “And maybe it takes the ability to interpret what you’re looking at to really see, and maybe that’s what comes with wisdom.”

Keep ReadingShow less
Lakeville Open Horse Show returns for 69th year

Jazzmine Bone and A Stitch in Tyme power through the Gambler’s Choice run during the 2024 Lakeville Open.

Caitlin Von Graf

For nearly seven decades, the Lakeville Open Horse Show has brought riders, horses and spectators together for a day of competition and community.

This year’s show takes place on Sunday, Aug. 30, at Riga Meadow at Coole Park, 1031 Bengal Amenia Road in Millbrook.

Keep ReadingShow less
google preferred source

Want more of our stories on Google? Click here to make us a Preferred Source.

A new home for contemporary music in Connecticut

This year, the ARChive of Contemporary Music, or ARC, is moving its collection to a permanent home in Ridgefield, Connecticut.

ARC is somewhat hard to imagine. Comprised mainly of huge collections from musicians, archivists, and DJs, it has compiled more than three million sound recordings, consisting of over 90 million songs.

Keep ReadingShow less
A Vietnamese water puppet musical returns to the quarry where it began

“The Magnificent Ms. Pham” combines Vietnamese water puppetry, shadow theater, music and storytelling.

Provided

“The Magnificent Ms. Pham,” the first Vietnamese American water puppet show, is returning to the water where it was born. The perpetual motion puppet show will be at TurnPark Art Space in West Stockbridge, Mass., Aug. 28 and 29, following a sold-out New York City premiere earlier this year. The production was originally developed at TurnPark, where its puppets first danced across the surface of the quarry lake.

Created by Vietnamese American artist Tommy Nguyen and director and designer Doug Fitch, the production tells the story of Nguyen’s mother, Kim Pham, and her journey from Vietnam to the United States. The story moves between memory, Vietnamese history and mythology, and the realities of immigration, following Kim from her childhood in Vietnam through her escape as a “boat person” and eventual life in Houston, Texas.

Keep ReadingShow less
Barry Blitt draws for the Northwest Connecticut Arts Council

Cartoonist Barry Blitt created a design for a limited edition T-shirt for Northwest Connecticut Arts Council fundraiser.

Jennifer Almquist

A drawing by Barry Blitt is recognizable from a distance simply for his line quality and hint of watercolor. Known for his scathing political cartoons, this longtime cover illustrator for the New Yorker has leaned his shoulder in to support the NWCT Arts Council and its Aug. 29 fundraiser at Buck’s Rock Camp in New Milford. Blitt created a design for limited-edition T-shirts that will be available for sale at the event and online at artsnwct.org.

David Remnick, editor of the New Yorker since 1998, called Blitt “One of the greatest political cartoonists of our time.” A native of Canada, Blitt won a Pulitzer Prize for editorial cartooning and has created more than 100 covers for the New Yorker since 1992. Perhaps most memorable is his 2008 iconic fist bump between Barack Obama and Michelle Obama, “The Politics of Fear.” A quarter century of his sketches and drawings are collected in “Blitt: In One Eye and Out the Other,” published by Penguin Putnam. He has created books for children, including “George Washington’s Birthday” and “Once Upon a Time, the End, (Asleep in 60 Seconds).”

Keep ReadingShow less
google preferred source

Want more of our stories on Google? Click here to make us a Preferred Source.

google preferred source

Want more of our stories on Google? Click here to make us a Preferred Source.